The best context for understanding decadal temperature changes comes from the world’s sea surface temperatures (SST), for several reasons:
The ocean covers 71% of the globe and drives average temperatures;
SSTs have a constant water content, (unlike air temperatures), so give a better reading of heat content variations;
A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature in recent years.
Previously I used HadSST3 for these reports, but Hadley Centre has made HadSST4 the priority, and v.3 will no longer be updated. Reports since February are based on HadSST 4, but with a twist. The data is slightly different in the new version, 4.2.0.0 replacing 4.1.1.0. Product page is here.
The Current Context
The chart below shows SST monthly anomalies as reported in HadSST 4.2 starting in 2015 through August 2026. A global cooling pattern is seen clearly in the Tropics since its peak in 2016, joined by NH and SH cycling downward since 2016, followed by rising temperatures in 2023 and 2024 and cooling in 2025, now with a steady mild rising in 2026 pausing in May, resuming in June and rising sharply into July and August.
Note that in 2015-2016 the Tropics and SH peaked in between two summer NH spikes. That pattern repeated in 2019-2020 with a lesser Tropics peak and SH bump, but with higher NH spikes. By end of 2020, cooler SSTs in all regions took the Global anomaly well below the mean for this period. A small warming was driven by NH summer peaks in 2021-22, but offset by cooling in SH and the tropics, By January 2023 the global anomaly was again below the mean.
Then comes a third iteration of the pattern starting in 2023 and continuing through July 2026. Each year presents a summer NH warming spike with the highest in 2023, now approached by 2026. The Tropics have a different rhythm, rising dramatically in 2023, peaking in 2024, then rapidly declining hitting bottom end of 2025. Now in 2026 ENSO is returning with a spike raising temperatures in all regions pulling the Global anomaly upward. The August NH peak matches the 2023 NH peak along with higher values for SH, Tropics and Global anomaly.
Comment:
The climatists have seized on this unusual warming as proof their Zero Carbon agenda is needed, without addressing how impossible it would be for CO2 warming the air to raise ocean temperatures. It is the ocean that warms the air, not the other way around. Recently Steven Koonin had this to say about the phonomenon confirmed in the graph above:
El Nino is a phenomenon in the climate system that happens once every four or five years. Heat builds up in the equatorial Pacific to the west of Indonesia and so on. Then when enough of it builds up it surges across the Pacific and changes the currents and the winds. As it surges toward South America it was discovered and named in the 19th century It iswell understood at this point that the phenomenon has nothing to do with CO2.
Now people talk about changes in that phenomena as a result of CO2 but it’s there in the climate system already and when it happens it influences weather all over the world. We feel it when it gets rainier in Southern California for example. So for the last 3 years we have been in the opposite of an El Nino, a La Nina, part of the reason people think the West Coast has been in drought.
It has now shifted in the last months to an El Nino condition that warms the globe and is thought to contribute to this Spike we have seen. But there are other contributions as well. One of the most surprising ones is that back in January of 2022 an enormous underwater volcano went off in Tonga and it put up a lot of water vapor into the upper atmosphere. It increased the upper atmosphere of water vapor by about 10 percent, and that’s a warming effect, and it may be that is contributing to why the spike is so high.
A longer view of SSTs
To enlarge, open image in new tab.
The graph above is noisy, but the density is needed to see the seasonal patterns in the oceanic fluctuations. Previous posts focused on the rise and fall of the last El Nino starting in 2015. This post adds a longer view, encompassing the significant 1998 El Nino and since. The color schemes are retained for Global, Tropics, NH and SH anomalies. Despite the longer time frame, I have kept the monthly data (rather than yearly averages) because of interesting shifts between January and July. 1995 is a reasonable (ENSO neutral) starting point prior to the first El Nino.
The sharp Tropical rise peaking in 1998 was dominant in the record, starting Jan. ’97 to pull up SSTs uniformly before returning to the same level Jan. ’99. There were strong cool periods before and after the 1998 El Nino event. Then SSTs in all regions returned to the mean in 2001-2.
SSTS fluctuate around the mean until 2007, when another, smaller ENSO event occurs. There is cooling 2007-8, a lower peak warming in 2009-10, following by cooling in 2011-12. Again SSTs are average 2013-14.
Now a different pattern appears. The Tropics cooled sharply to Jan 11, then rise steadily for 4 years to Jan 15, at which point the most recent major El Nino takes off. But this time in contrast to ’97-’99, the Northern Hemisphere produces peaks every summer pulling up the Global average. In fact, these NH peaks appear every July starting in 2003, growing stronger to produce 3 massive highs in 2014, 15 and 16. NH July 2017 was only slightly lower, and a fifth NH peak still lower in Sept. 2018.
The highest summer NH peaks came in 2019 and 2020, only this time the Tropics and SH were offsetting rather adding to the warming. (Note: these are high anomalies on top of the highest absolute temps in the NH.) Since 2014 SH has played a moderating role, offsetting the NH warming pulses. After September 2020 temps dropped off down until February 2021. In 2021-22 there were again summer NH spikes, but in 2022 moderated first by cooling Tropics and SH SSTs, then in October to January 2023 by deeper cooling in NH and Tropics.
Then in starting in 2023 the Tropics flipped from below to well above average, while NH produced a summer peak extending into September higher than any previous year. 2024 and 2025 replicated summer peaks in the previous itertation. Now in 2026 July is nearly as high as 2023.
What to make of all this? The patterns suggest that in addition to El Ninos in the Pacific driving the Tropic SSTs, something else is going on in the NH. The obvious culprit is the North Atlantic, since I have seen this sort of pulsing before. After reading some papers by David Dilley, I confirmed his observation of Atlantic pulses into the Arctic every 8 to 10 years.
Contemporary AMO Observations
Through January 2023 I depended on the Kaplan AMO Index (not smoothed, not detrended) for N. Atlantic observations. But it is no longer being updated, and NOAA says they don’t know its future. So I find that ERSSTv5 AMO dataset has current data. It differs from Kaplan, which reported average absolute temps measured in N. Atlantic. “ERSST5 AMO follows Trenberth and Shea (2006) proposal to use the NA region EQ-60°N, 0°-80°W and subtract the global rise of SST 60°S-60°N to obtain a measure of the internal variability, arguing that the effect of external forcing on the North Atlantic should be similar to the effect on the other oceans.” So the values represent SST anomaly differences between the N. Atlantic and the Global ocean.
The chart above confirms what Kaplan also showed. As August is the hottest month for the N. Atlantic, its variability, high and low, drives the annual results for this basin. Note also the peaks in 2010, lows after 2014, and a rise in 2021. Then in 2023 the peak reached 1.4C before declining to 0.8, and now back up to 1.2C August 2026. An annual chart below is informative:
Note the difference between blue/green years, beige/brown, and purple/red years. 2010, 2021, 2022 all peaked strongly in August or September. 1998 and 2007 were mildly warm. 2016 and 2018 were matching or cooler than the global average. 2023 started out slightly warm, then rose steadily to an extraordinary peak in July. August to October were only slightly lower, but by December cooled by ~0.4C.
Then in 2024 the AMO anomaly started higher than any previous year, then leveled off for two months declining slightly into April. Remarkably, May showed an upward leap putting this on a higher track than 2023, and rising slightly higher in June. In July, August and September 2024 the anomaly declined, and despite a small rise in October, ended close to where it began.
Note 2025 started much lower than the previous year and headed sharply downward, well below the previous two years, and since April through September aligning with 2010. In October there was an unusual upward spike, now reversed down to match 2022 and 2016. The orange 2026 line started downward and is visible on top of 2016 purple line, then slightly higher, and now spiking higher in July and August up to 1.2C.
The pattern suggests the ocean may be demonstrating a stairstep pattern like that we have also seen in HadCRUT4.
The purple line is the average anomaly 1980-1996 inclusive, value 0.18. The orange line the average 1980-2026, value 0.42 also for the period 1996-2013. The red line is 2013-2026, value 0.72. As noted above, these rising stages are driven by the combined warming in the Tropics and NH, including both Pacific and Atlantic basins.
The oceans are driving the warming this century. SSTs took a step up with the 1998 El Nino and have stayed there with help from the North Atlantic, and more recently the Pacific northern “Blob.” The ocean surfaces are releasing a lot of energy, warming the air, but eventually will have a cooling effect. The decline after 1937 was rapid by comparison, so one wonders: How long can the oceans keep this up? And is the sun adding forcing to this process?
USS Pearl Harbor deploys Global Drifter Buoys in Pacific Ocean
In this interview, National Post’s Rob Breakenridge speaks with Carleton University business professor Ian Lee about the need for Canadians to accept some of the basic economic realities we’re facing and the potential economic damage from a prolonged trade war. If we’re not careful, Lee warns that we could stumble into a recession or even see capital flight out of the country. For those prefering to read I provide a transcript lightly edited from the captions with my bolds and added images.
RB: Hey folks, I’m Rob Breakenridge for NationalPost.com, and NP comment. Well this unfortunate trade war between Canada and the U.S. has indeed escalated further this week. Canada’s counter tariffs on the U.S. have taken effect and in response the Americans have widened the scope of their own new tariffs on Canadian goods. So Ian Lee, professor at the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University, is joining us for some further thoughts on the impact of this trade war, where this is all going, what Canada’s strategy might possibly be in all of this. Professor Lee, great to have you with us here. IL: My great pleasure. Thanks for inviting me, Rob.
RB: I think a lot of Canadians are looking at this with dismay wondering, you know, how did it get to this point? How did things go so sideways and would it otherwise been a productive trading relationship? Just your thoughts first of all on where we are right now.
IL: It’s almost a tragedy. This is almost a Shakespearean tragedy. I mean I don’t want to become overwrought and over the top but, I’ve been teaching business for 35 years. Before that I was nine years in commercial banking. I’ve lived in this country all my life but I’ve traveled around the world, lived twice in the States on sabbaticals, once in D.C., once in the West Coast just below Silicon Valley. I’ve traveled many, many times across the border because my sister’s an American and I’ve just never seen anything like this.
Our relationship, I mean I’ll say it again, we all know the history, it goes back a quarter of a millennium. It goes back 250 years, way before Confederation. We have the longest border in the world. I won’t even get into the border defended versus undefended. I mean it’s 8,800 kilometers long.It’s stunning. And we have had a pretty good relationship during that time, you know, a few ups and downs. Every now and then Lyndon Johnson got angry at Lester Pearson when he criticized the Vietnam War but by and large it was pretty good. And the trade continues to flow because of the tremendous integration between the two countries and the relationship.
So I’m looking at this and it just seems, I don’t believe that there’s a geopolitical logic to this in the Kissingerian sense. I think that, some emotions have got out of hand, some very unfortunate remarks, yes, and yes, I’m not trying to sugarcoat Donald Trump. I don’t agree with anything he says on tariffs because I support free trade agreements. I supported every free trade agreement since 1988 and free trade agreements take tariffs away. They’re the opposite of tariffs.
But I think that we need to get back to the negotiating table. It’s not going to be easy. It’s going to be hard.Winston Churchill taught us it’s far better to jaw jaw than to war war. War is only the very, very, very last resort. Kissinger taught us that too. So I think there’s been mistakes. Yes, I’m a Canadian so I think more mistakes on the American side but still, I think we have to get back to the table and get back to negotiating because we can’t let this fall apart.
RB: Right. And obviously with Trump the first time around we’ve managed to get a renegotiated free trade deal, what we refer to as CUSMA. Clearly Trump 2.0 has a different, more aggressive trade policy, a more protectionist trade policy and they’ve doubled down on a lot of those elements. Do you think Canadians and maybe this government were not prepared for that shift or they didn’t see it coming or that we just sort of thought that, okay, we dealt with this already. We weren’t going to have to worry about these issues.
IL: I think so, I think that they were honest mistakes on our side. We didn’t realize that Trump 2.0 was going to be much more aggressive in his second and final term, limited by the Constitution, we know that, older, maybe not, maybe not wiser. But certainly more aggressive in his speeches and comments in that secondcampaign. He was much more bitter twisted, you know, in terms of the way he’d been treated by the Democrats. So I think mistakes were made there. We underestimated, maybe we didn’t do our due diligence. And then I think it was, I believe, it was exacerbated. I’m not trying to blame, put on the blame and, you know, I don’t want to offend Andrew Coyne and have him coming after me or anyone else because he makes these arguments that we’re blaming ourselves.
But I know negotiations, whether it’s in a divorce or in a country to country or labor management, and I’ve certainly been involved in two of those categories, it involves both sides and there’s mistakes on both sides in negotiations and there’s interest in both sides. And I think that we used intemperate language at the beginning, at the very beginning. Yes, he was also, but I don’t think we should have responded.
I have all my life, I just believe that using pejorative language and insults is not the way to get a deal. And so I think that we, you know, we let the tempers and the emotions take charge rather than the logic and the data, the reality of the self-interest in the negotiations. So the U.S. imposed tariffs on Canada, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on most of its trading partners, and that’s sort of the approach now of this administration.
RB: In terms of Canada responding and the impact of counter tariffs, and now we’re at the point where, as we mentioned at the outset, things have really escalated between the tariffs and the retaliation. Do we have a good understanding in this country, Ian, of what it is we’re doingand the cost and the impact of these kinds of policies?
IL:I don’t, and I don’t belong to any political party, I do not donate funds to any political party, I don’t have a dog in this hunt, I don’t consult with any of these organizations, but I certainly have been teaching strategy in the capstone course and the MBA program and dealing, of course, necessarily with Canadian-American trade relations, because they are our largest trading partner and have been pretty well forever, and certainly in the 20th century and going forward.
I think that the emotions have become so raw and so heated that we have neglected to look, with very hard nose, at the results and the cost of this. I quote Stats all the time, and I mean Stats Canada Stats, also World Trade Organization Stats, government Stats of trade relations and so forth. We are one-thirteenth the size of the United States, but there’s another figure I want to throw up because, probably people know that one.
You know, they’re 32 trillion, we’re about 2.2 trillion expressed in U.S. dollars in terms of GDP, so they dwarf us. I mean, Pierre Trudeau taught us that, you know, we’re the mouse, they’re the elephant. But there’s a lot of Canadians who say, well, you know, they really depend on us, or they’re dependent on Canada. And this has been driving me crazy because I knew that wasn’t true. I understand arithmetic. The totality of Canadian exports annually are about 400 billion. And most people say, wow, that’s a huge amount of money. It’s 1.5% of U.S. GDP.
The idea that they are dependent and we can, ”bring them to their knees”
is just a denial of arithmetic.
This doesn’t require calculus.This doesn’t require a doctorate in economics. I really am being blunt here. You know, the U.S., if you look from a slightly different angle very quickly, the U.S. trades less with the outside world in percentage terms. The key point is we have to normalize the data to percentages. We can’t talk absolutes because the U.S. is so huge. In percentage terms, the U.S. trades less with the world than any other OECD country. 85% of American GDP is American companies trading with American companies in California or Illinois or, across the U.S., 15% with the rest of the world. And we’re a subset of that 15%.
So this idea that we can bring them to their knees because they’re completely dependent on Canada is just preposterous nonsense.The U.S. has relations with just about every country in the world because most countries in the world want to deal with the largest economy, the world hegemon. And so we do not have the leverage that many Canadians think we have. And so I think that that belief has caused us to perhaps be much less willing to compromise when it is in our national strategic self-interest to compromise.
RB: And maybe in certain states or certain industries, you know, Kentucky bourbon felt like it was punched in the nose. We can make, you know, little scores or little hits here and there. But in terms of something that’s really going to move the needle in terms of the American economy or overall cost pressures, is there much that Canada can do in that sense?
IL: I believe there is. I keep quoting Kissinger just because I’ve always admired him. He’s brilliant. He was a strategy prof at Harvard for 25 years before Richard Nixon appointed him to the administration and he convinced Richard Nixon that his policy of refusing to recognize the largest population in the world called China, red China, was just a bad thing. And he caused the Americans to finally recognize China, even though it was then and now an adversary.
So to your question, I think that our emotions have put us into a box. Our reaction is completely: How can we punch him back? How hard can we punch him back? We think only in mono response.It’s how much damage they just disrespected me. So how much disrespect back do we give? Instead of thinking much more strategically, don’t get mad, get even type of logic, and saying, well, you know, there’s things that the Americans want from us and there’s things that we want from them. They were at the table. People seem to forget when they say Donald Trump doesn’t want to negotiate with us. You and I’ve been involved with the negotiations, not at the country level, but people only go into negotiations because they want something from the other side. If there’s nothing I want from somebody else, I’m not going to waste my time talking to them.
And the Americans were at the table up until the very day that it broke. So there’s something they want from us. And we can look at the record. We know that China has the United States by the throat on critical minerals. We know they’re deeply interested in critical minerals to reduce their dependency on China. We know that because it’s in every just about every article in Foreign Policy magazine, Foreign Affairs magazine in Washington by very senior former decision makers, Republican and Democrat, military, legal, commercial. There is a unanimity in Washington, they see China as a mortal existential threat.
We think that this is all about the United States and Canada. It is not. This is really part of a much bigger crisis that’s going on, the whole debate over the so-called China shock 2.0. And those incredible, unsustainable balances, 1.4 trillion net exports and the Chinese Communist Party, the ruling Politburo has in their five-year plan a very short time ago, has promised to double their exports and their manufacturing.
So if we thought we had a crisis in the last 10 years with over-exporting by China, we haven’t seen anything yet. And so we are really part of a much larger issue. And we’ve got to recognize that, that they’re what they’ve said to us allegedly on China wasn’t because they were trying to ruin us or absorb us or put us out of business. It’s because they are focused on China. We mistakenly think they’re focused on us. I go frequently to the United States, and they’re not paying attention to us, but they are very, very aware of China and in every sense of the word.
And I’m not trying to demonize China. I’ve been teaching in China for a third of a century every year in an MBA program. And my Chinese students are outstanding. They’re amazing. They’re disciplined. I have great respect for the Chinese nation and the Chinese people.
But there is no question the studies have shown the China problem. The anti-dumping tribunals have ruled this, that China is cheating in terms of industrial subsidies, five times what they are in Europe or Canada or the US. German Chancellor Merz said last week said that the currency is undervalued by 30 percent. And that’s been very deliberate to, again, give them a competitive advantage.
So what I’m saying is we’ve got to step back. We, Canada, we the negotiators and say it’s not all about us.And we got to at least acknowledge the bigger, larger context that we find ourselves in and in returning to the table. And maybe that will temper our views so that we can make some compromises. And I think we’re going to have to make some compromises to return to the table.
I’ll be very blunt. I’ll put supply management right at the top of the list. It’s been on the US Trade Rep’s list report tabled in the Congress for 50 years. Every president since Reagan. I’m not here to defend Trump, I don’t agree with him at all. But this notion is false, that he’s made up all these ideas that he’s demanding compromises on and it’s never been demanded before by the US. Canadians should be downloading and reading the US Trade Rep report for each year for the last 10, 20, 30 years because they’ve been saying the same thing over and over and over and over again.
I’m not saying that justifies it, but at least it gives you a better understanding of where these demands are coming from.The way I like to put it very quickly, Rob, is the only difference, fundamental difference, aside from the fact he’s far more vulgar and he uses all kinds of language that’s just horrible. But Trump didn’t invent these grievances. They’ve been there for since Reagan, by and large.The difference between Trump and past presidents was past presidents said, look, we don’t like it.
Obama said that to the House of Commons. I’m two kilometers from the Parliament Hill in Ottawa. And he came down here. He said, we’ve got these unhappy irritants. We don’t like them, Canada, but you’re a great ally.We’ve been allies forever and ever. So we are not going to push it and and make it into a huge crisis, basically, was what Obama said. And past presidents said that, too.
The difference with Trump was he took the same set of grievances, threw in a few more, and then said, and this is not acceptable and I am going to punish you. That’s the difference between Trump and past American presidents. They knew about all these trade irritants.They’d been there for a very long time. We ignored them and they looked the other way. The difference is Trump said, I’m not looking the other way. In fact, I’m going to punish you.
And so instead of saying he’s trying to break us, rather he’s just trying to get to compromise and meet the demands that they want on these issues that are very important to them. We have to decide which ones are worth dying on a hill for and which ones are not that important. I cannot see any serious argument that potentially risking a new CUSMA for 8000 dairy farmers in Quebec so that we can continue to double the price of milk and dairy to low income and ordinary Canadians is a hill to die on. It is just not worth it.
We should do what the Australians and the New Zealand government did in 2000 when they paid off the farmers in supply management, gave them generous compensations and said we are ending supply. And they did. We’re the only country in the world now with supply management. That’s the kind of strategic thinking that we need instead of this emotionalism that is the name calling and so forth, because we need to get back to the table.
It’s in our strategic self-interest. We have this border. We have 50,000 businesses exporting to the US, most of them SMEs. Many of them are undercapitalized, like all SMEs, and they’re at risk of failing if they get lose access to that market. And so we can’t treat these ordinary Canadians and the people that work there in a such a cavalier fashion, such a callous fashion, and just say, too bad, we’re angry at Trump. And so you’re just going to be roadkill. I think we have to develop a more strategic approach that is more sensitive and more aware of the larger context. And we’ve got to get back to the table.
RB: So if we don’t and I guess it’s unclear at this point which way things are going to go. But if we do dig in our heels and this is prolonged with the American tariffs remaining in place, our counter tariffs remain in place. This will put costs, puts costs and pressure on the Canadian economy. How worried are you about the fallout from this trade?
IL: I have already said and predicted from past experience. When I was at the Bank of Montreal, main office branch, Ottawa, right beside Westbrook, Parliament Hill. And that’s when interest rates went to twenty one percent. So when people complain about interest rates going to five or six, I said, that is a walk in the park. That’s a picnic. I was there when lending mortgage money was at twenty one percent. It was just unbelievable.
Businesses were going down like ten pins.The unemployment rate went to the highest level since the Great Depression. So I lived through that. That was the worst recession since the Great Depression, much worse than 2009 or any recession since. And it was horrible. And so if we lose access to the largest economy in the world and we have so many small businesses. And according to stats can data from this morning, they account for 73 percent of all private sector employment in Canada, then I believe we’re going to go into a recession.
And we have to start saying, is that what we want? And can we afford this after doubling the debt because of the covid support? And now we have doubled it. And when you look at federal provincial municipal debt as a percentage of GDP, we’re at the same level essentially as the French. And that’s not a compliment. And that’s not we’re not doing well. Contrary to what Finance Minister Champagne says, because he just cherry picks the federal debt and doesn’t include all of the debt, which is the normal practice for the international financial institutions.
So my point is, you know, we could be looking at because, of course, we’re going to support these people. Of course, we’re going to have to inject enormous amounts of stimulus.And this comes right after covid. And it’s so unnecessary. And I still don’t see the exit ramp. So we do that. OK, great. So we do that for six months. Now we’re going to do it for another six months, do it for another year. We can’t do that indefinitely into the future. There’s got to be an exit ramp and we can’t just go on and on and on like this.
And that means, in my judgment, that we must return to the table. Yes, make some compromises on the things that are not critical in a national strategic sense and then negotiate a new deal. And it may be only for two years because we think that, after he leaves office, we can negotiate a better deal. OK, I mean, I have no problem with that, but forget this idea that we can just wait him out and suspend the Canadian economy somehow. We’ll just, you know, suspend it, you know, and if you can’t access the U.S. economy for the next two years, the private sector, well, it’ll come back maybe in two years.
You can’t run a country like that. You can’t run a society saying, well, we we think and we hope and we really are counting on maybe perhaps possibly getting a better deal in two or three or four years. We can’t go down that road. We have to deal with the facts as they are on the table.We have to deal with the reality. Pierre Trudeau famously said to govern is to choose to make tough choices. We it’s now the time for leadership in Canada to make tough choices and have a conversation, a blunt adult conversation with the Canadian people, putting facts on the table, telling Canadians they’re 13 times bigger.They are the world hegemon.
No, we’re not going to lie down on the railroad tracks and let them run over us.
But we are going to have compromises to enable our business sector to
prosper because we don’t want to slide into a recession
or something even worse with capital flight.
Rob, very quickly, I know I’m talking too much, but what really terrifies me is the capital flight. And people say and I get emails, well, this this product, a hockey stick or something, we can live with that. And so they try and nibble me in an argument, you know, this little, micro tariff on this product, can we take the hit? That’s not my fear. It’s not the specific tariff of a specific industry or specific product.
My fear is what the KPMG study showed three weeks ago. Forty two percent of manufacturing businesses in this country are actively examining, moving to the States. In the words of the World Bank, that’s called capital flight. And it’s experienced normally, typically in developing third world countries that are massively mismanaged. Argentina has experienced massive capital flight. Russia has been experiencing massive capital flight the last three or four years.
And and when that capital leaves, those factories aren’t coming back.Those businesses aren’t coming back. They’re not going to say two years later, OK, you changed your mind. You figured out your problems in the States. I’ll come back now. Once they go, they’re gone. And that’s the backbone of our country.They employ 16 million of the 20 million Canadians.
The idea that the public sector is going to save us by buying some submarines and some helicopters is just fantasy. We’ve got to have a vibrant private sector.And so that’s why we’ve got to have a much more tough conversation and put some frank data on the table, one of which is that we cannot bring the US to its knees because that we are a tiny part of their economy.
And I’m hoping that Prime Minister Carney has some kind of a fireside chat with Canadians, a la the Roosevelt back in the back in the back in the in the Depression when he had those fireside chats telling everybody how horrible and terrible life was. He didn’t sugarcoat it.He showed leadership. Same with Winston Churchill. You know, yes, he had optimism, but he said these are very, very dark days.I remember him because my late father was a Brit.
They showed leadership in tough times.They didn’t pander to our worst emotions and anger. And so I’m hoping that Prime Minister Carney will show that leadership and have that tough frank talk with Canadians, because something like 75 or 80 percent of Canadians are saying things like don’t give up a thing to the United States.
Well, we don’t give up anything, then we’re not going to have a deal because negotiations involve giving and taking. That’s what negotiations are. And so that’s what we need in this country. And is that kind of that very hard nosed, tough minded conversation with the Canadian people in a fireside chat and not pour gasoline on the raging fire, making it even more inflammatory and inflamed?
RB: Well, we shall see.Professor Lee, really appreciate the insight. Thank you so much for joining us here. Thanks very much, Rob.Thank you. Really appreciate it. Ian Lee, professor of the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University.My name is Rob Breckenridge. Thanks again for joining us here.
The chart above from DMI shows why Arctic ice melted more slowly than average. This year the daily mean temperature never went above freezing, From now on it will only grow colder. The daily minimum may have occured already on Sept. 7 with an ice extent of 4.9M km2.
August is significant because it is the last month that NH ice extent declines. Those familar with the datasets know that March monthly average is taken as the annual maximum ice extent, and September monthly average serves as the annual minimum. Importantly both months are neutral, i.e. the ice extent values are nearly the same at the month start and end. All the melting occurs April to August, all the freezing October to February.
[ It reminds me what a Saskatchewan grain farmer told me: “Around here we only have AAA farmers”. I asked what he meant and he replied: “April to August and then Arizona.”]
The arctic ice extents are now reported through September 11, 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex had hampered ice formation with incursions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle. This factor receded in May and June, with July extents closing the gap with the averages. Melting ceased after Sept. 7 and is now ~5.0M km2. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) goes through the Russian shelf seas of Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas on the way to Bering Strait in Beaufort Sea.
The image from September 11 shows the Arctic Ocean core is still solid, while the Eurasian NSR now has open water on the left vertical side, including passages through Laptev (top left) and Chukchi (bottom Left). As usual in August, Hudson Bay (bottom right) is full open water, as is Baffin Bay (middle right). At this point Canadian Archipelago has opened up the eastern end of the NW passage, but has extensive old ice as well as growing additional fast ice in Beaufort sea (bottom center). Canadian Ice Service latest conditions along the Alaskan coast include an ice warning for ships:
The chart below shows the 20-year August averages for Arctic ice extents, along with 2026, 2025 and 2007 as well as SII v.4. Note that on average ice extents hover around 4.6M km2 ending this period. In this period MASIE was well above average throughout currently hovering around 5.0 M km2, and comparable to 2025. SII v.4 continues to greatly underestimate Arctic ice extent, presently ~0.35M km2 lower than MASIE. All of these are higher than 2007.
The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 254 across regions of the Arctic ocean.
Region
2026254
Day 254 ave.
2026-Ave.
2007254
2026-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere
4948149
4643810
304340
4349612
598537
(1) Beaufort_Sea
659822
502590
157231
599679
60143
(2) Chukchi_Sea
344007
216432
127575
74733
269274
(3) East_Siberian_Sea
277773
292941
-15168
311
277462
(4) Laptev_Sea
213926
155123
58803
247496
-33569
(5) Kara_Sea
18
33322
-33304
62274
-62255
(6) Barents_Sea
0
14658
-14658
7384
-7384
(7) Greenland_Sea
192766
176959
15807
324789
-132023
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence
39619
28358
11261
21406
18213
(9) Canadian_Archipelago
302503
273010
29493
210083
92420
(10) Hudson_Bay
16
6972
-6956
16552
-16536
(11) Central_Arctic
2916558
2942564
-26006
2783651
132907
The table shows an overall surplus of 304k km2 or 7%, and more than a half wadham greater than 2007. Many regions are close to or above the 20-year average. The seas of Laptev, Chukchi and Beaufort are in surplus. The only sizeable deficit is in Kara Sea. Bering and Okhotsk seas are left off the list since they are open water now as usual.
Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.
Lucy Biggers of Free Press interviews US Energy Secretary Chris Wright regarding the paramount role of energy development and access for civil and social wellbeing. For those who prefer reading I provide a transcript lightly edited from the captions with my bolds and added images LB refers to comments from Lucy Biggers and CW to words from Secretary Wright.
LB: Wright has one of the most consequential and least understood jobs in Washington. As Trump’s Secretary of Energy, he oversees the department responsible for shaping America’s energy future, directing billions of dollars in research and development, influencing which technologies are built and scaled, and helping set the policies that will define the country’s energy system for decades to come. Under Wright, the Department of Energy has taken a sharp turn away from the policies of the Biden and Obama administrations.
Instead of a major focus on climate change and a renewables-first agenda that sought to reduce reliance on fossil fuels: “The United States will be 100% clean energy economy with net zero emissions.” Wright has embraced the policy of what he calls energy abundance, an all-of-the-above strategy that prioritizes expanding access to all energy sources, including fossil fuels.
The bet of his administration is that long-term human prosperity depends
not on using less energy, but on producing far more of it.
It’s an approach that has its detractors, but one that the administration has shown it’s not scared to pursue. As a former climate activist who once believed in climate doomerism and now believes this fear-based narrative left out important parts of the story, I sat down with Secretary Wright to understand what an energy abundance mindset looks like in practice and why he believes it offers a better path forward for America and the whole world.
Secretary Wright, welcome to The Free Press. Thank you so much for being here today.
LB: So for people who aren’t familiar with your worldview, can you kind of explain how you think about energy compared to maybe what we see from the news and the mainstream?
CW: Yeah, but if you’re not in the energy business, I totally get why would people know the energy business? It’s complicated and if your energy system works, why would you even worry about it? I’ve just always looked at how does energy impact the quality of your life or anyone’s life? It is the transformative agent that created the modern world. Human life expectancy was 30 years, 20,000 years ago.
Energy Sources and the Rise of Civilization. Source: Bill Gates
Human life expectancy at birth was 30 years, 200 years ago. It was only really the large-scale arrival of coal that gave so much more energy, that made agriculture more efficient, that allowed people to do things. Ultimately, the arrival of oil that allowed the development of modern medicine, well, average life expectancy at birth today is over 70 years.
That’s energy delivering that. Energy delivers the public health benefits that spread to everyone, but not everyone lives a highly energized life. Only about a billion, Lucy, live like you and I and your listeners. We got climate-controlled rooms, we got lights, we take buses and trains and planes and- Running water. Running water. I mean, that stuff’s awesome.
But only about a billion people have that fully energized life. About seven billion people, I’ve met a lot of them, not all seven billion, but I haven’t met one of them that doesn’t want a lifestyle like you and I. The only road from where we are today to that road is just massively more energy. I’ve been all in on more energy my whole life.
LB: When you entered office, what was the state of our energy system based on your predecessors?
CW: The Department of Energy, where I am, didn’t want to touch hydrocarbons, didn’t want to be photoed with anything associated with hydrocarbon. All of their money was wind, solar, and batteries, which is 3% of global energy, about 3.5% of American energy. Then decarbonization things, like if you did carbon capture at a coal plant. You couldn’t talk about coal plants, but they wanted to look at technologies to capture carbon. In fact, they funded a project that was decarb mac and cheese. Like a giant food company that makes mac and cheese, they were giving them grants, tens of millions of dollars to change their process to reduce the CO2 emissions from the production of mac and cheese.
So just crazy. All it meant is if you did that process, like mac and cheese is a little bit more expensive, and they thought, well, people don’t care. They’ll just pay a higher price. What’s the benefit of minute decarbonization? The honest answer to that is zero. Were they shutting down coal plants? Absolutely. The administration, their scoreboard on energy was shutting down as many coal plants as they could have.
In fact, when we got into office, the plans in place and the resource plans for utilities across the country were, over the next five years, to shut down a net 46 gigawatts of generation. So that’s like 40,000 homes. So 100,000 people. I mean, it’s huge. And they’re shutting down firm generation, meaning that it works 24-7 whether or not the wind is blowing or the sun is shining.
We also think the arrival of AI now, and people want to restore manufacturing here, modern manufacturing. We’re going to have robots and automation. So our projections show we need about 100 gigawatts, which is a huge number of additional generation in the U.S. over the next five years. And we inherited plans that were going to be minus 46. So then we’d have to build 150 to get up to our 100. So we thought, well, let’s stop digging the hole first. Then we must only build 100 instead of building 150.
LB:The Trump administration is represented in the media by most of our outlets. The headline, they’re saying, oh, they defunded renewables. Isn’t this so evil? Bring people over to how you see it.
CW: I say energy is just about humans and math. We produce energy to make people’s lives better. And of course, environmental impacts factor into that. Clean air, clean water, beautiful wilderness. We care. If you become wealthy humans, you care about all those things. And so to me, it’s just about doing the math. And as I mentioned, the world has spent $10 trillion on wind, solar, batteries, and the transmission to connect these remote resources. And it’s 3% of global energy.
And if you have high concentrations of renewables, like the countries that have led in this, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Denmark, they have the largest percent of those resources. They have the three most expensive electricity prices in the world. I mean, it is massive. And of course, what it did, for example, in England, it just deindustrialized the country. The government had to step in about a year and a half ago to stop the closure of the last steel furnace in the country.
This is the fifth largest economy in the world. And the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution was not going to make one scrap of steel in their country. You cannot have a modern world without steel, cement, plastics, and fertilizer. Vaclav Smil, the greatest energy scholar of our time, calls them the four pillars of the modern world. We use 20% of energy, global energy, just to produce those four materials. But if you want any of the things you’ve got in your life, you can’t survive without those four materials. But they’re energy intensive to make.
So in the United Kingdom, they have the largest reduction in greenhouse gases. They’re very proud of that. They’ve reduced their greenhouse gas emissions by about 40%. What they don’t tell you is they’ve reduced the total energy production in their country by about 40%. So they’ve just exported all their industry. It used to be in a natural gas powered plant in the Midlands of England. Now its same product is built in a coal fired power plant in China, loaded on a diesel powered ship that ships halfway around the world, delivers it to a dock, and it’s loaded on a truck, and they deliver it to their house. And they call that green. That’s clean and green.
You’re just moving emissions. That’s not reducing emissions.
That’s just impoverishing people and sending jobs out of your country.
There’s roles for solar. Remote African villages to charge cell phones. There’s going to be power in space. We use solar panels in space. So there’s roles for it. But is the world ever going to run on solar panels and wind turbine? Absolutely not. Two reasons of that. England, as I said, has gone so crazy. They’ve tripled their electricity prices. They plummeted their industry. You know what percent of energy in this wind, solar gone wild country? 6% of the primary energy. That’s like the peak. When the sun’s shining and the wind’s blowing perfectly. But they have so much that their total energy is still only 6%. England, that went crazy on this, gets 75% of its energy from oil and natural gas.
You can’t run a country or a modern world. You can run an electricity grid some of the time without them. But electricity is just one slice of energy. In fact, to build solar panels or to build wind turbines or to build batteries are massively hydrocarbon intensity, which is why most of it’s built in China. You need lots of high temperature heat, lots of energy in manufacturing, lots of energy used in the mining of it. And then the materials themselves, they’re made out of hydrocarbons.
LB: Those blades, giant wind turbine, those are oil. I think for most people, the big thing on their mind when it comes to our energy system is climate change in our energy system. So I really want to hear from you. How do you factor in climate change when you’re making decisions?
CW: Yeah. So look, I’ve been fascinated by climate change for 25 years. And the more you look into it, it’s a real thing. We’ve increased atmospheric CO2 concentration from a little less than 0.03% to a little more than 0.04%. 50% increase. So it’s not nothing. It does absorb infrared radiation. It is contributing to the warming of the planet and will continue to for quite some time. So it’s a real issue. It’s just not even remotely close to the world’s biggest problem.
I mean, if you were honest, it wouldn’t make a top 10 list. And so they used to try to sell people fear about: it’s so hot and we’re not going to be able to go outside. It’s so crazy. I mean, if it’s warmed in Fahrenheit 2 degrees over the last 125 years, we can change the room you and I are in by 2 degrees and I wouldn’t even notice. Maybe you might, but I’m not that sensitive. I wouldn’t even notice 2 degrees in like 20 minutes. So 120 years, it’s not nothing, but it’s not that big of a deal.
That turned out to be a tougher sell. So they moved it to extreme weather because hurricanes and tornadoes, these things are terrifying and they are big. But of course, and it’s in the IPCC (intergovernmental panel on climate change) reports, there’s no trends in the increasing in the frequency or intensity of hurricanes, of tornadoes, of floods, of drought. And so then it was about deaths from them.
My Mind is Made Up, Don’t Confuse Me with the Facts. H/T Bjorn Lomborg, WUWT
And of course there is a massive trend there. We went from 500,000 people a year on average dying back in the 1920s from extreme weather globally. That’s massive. Last year, just under 10,000 deaths. So from 500,000 down to 10,000, that’s a 98% decline. And we have four times more people in the world.
So the thing about extreme weather is awesome. Hydrocarbons and great energy have just made life so much safer. And those 10,000 deaths are still tragic. And they’re in low income countries that don’t have modern construction and modern energy to make them robust and safe from that weather. More hydrocarbons, more hydrocarbons are what’s going to save those 10,000 lives. We still have death from extreme weather, not less hydrocarbons in theory to change the weather because it doesn’t.
LB: It will slightly change the rate at which the planet’s warming, but no one noticed that. You hear net zero, I think was this big thing everyone wanted to go for for a while. Explain what are the follies of net zero and the downsides of that.
CW: This comes from the Paris Climate Gathering, this Congress of the parties of the annual climate gathering. And it actually came from activists. This was not a scientific thing. Even in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, they do their own economics. Their own 2050 is a colossally bad idea that the cost to achieve it is something like 10 times the potential benefits and reduce climate damage. William Nordhaus, who won the Nobel Prize on climate economics, did an economic analysis of this, saying you should only reduce greenhouse gas emissions in areas where the cost to reduce them is less than the benefits you gain.
It’s just sort of how we look at everything else in life. I wouldn’t spend $10 for something I valued at 50 cents, but that’s what we do in the climate world. We spend $10 for maybe a quarter or a nickel or a dime of potential benefits. Net zero 2050 is really just a massive human impoverishment program.
LB: And then you have your own 2050 goal, which would be end energy poverty by 2050. Yeah, people want a passionate, aggressive goal.
CW: It’s realistic that we could massively reduce and effectively end energy poverty by 2050. And to give a little color on that, there’s about 2 billion people, a quarter of humanity, that still cook their daily meals and heat their homes or huts burning wood. Could be agricultural waste or dung, but it’s mostly wood indoors, just like all of our ancestors did.
Just like I do when we go camping in the woods when you can build a wood fire. If you’re high on glaciated mountains, you carry propane, you’re in the modern world. But in these 2 billion people that live that way, the World Health Organization estimates 2 to 3 million deaths from the indoor air pollution from burning that, from particulate matter. These are low temperature fires. It’s incomplete combustion. You’ve got smoke and particulates in the air.
That’s why I launched a Bettering Human Lives Foundation to make small loans to businesses that are delivering clean cooking fuels. To me, that is the biggest global energy challenge by far. Climate change isn’t even on the map compared to clean cooking fuels. We can save 2 to 3 million lives a year with technologies we already have today. And as we are customers in Africa, that’s neat. Maybe it’s going to make them live longer, but that’s not their motivation at all. Their motivation is it liberates women. Women do all the manual labor in traditional societies. And if you’re in Africa or South Asia, the women are getting up before the sun is up to gather wood, to start the fire, to cook the morning meals. Then they tamp the fire down. They don’t want to put it out, but they tamp it down so it won’t consume too much wood. They tend to that fire.
And then at the end of the day to cook the evening meal, they’ve got to stoke it back up. They just spend hours over this fire and gathering wood. Pretty much limits their life possibilities. And of course, the children are with them as well. They’re all suffering these health impacts. But for our customers there, it’s about liberation of women. You get a propane cookstove and you open the knob and you light the thing. You can cook. You can leave it on at low level and heat it at night. You can turn it on and off in like a flip of twisting a little knob. It’s just game changing.
I was at an event four or five years ago. There was a COP in Glasgow, COP 21. I don’t know, it was several years ago. 19 of the wealthiest nations in the world, the European nations, the United States, Canada, all pledged that they would no longer lend to the developing world for anything related to hydrocarbons. Think about that. In the United States, all of our countries run on hydrocarbons over 85% of our energy. Even in England, just oil and gas are 75%.
But they thought they were doing a good thing to pledge that they would not help those two billion people that want better lives and longer lives and healthier lives and liberated lives, that they would stand in the way of that. They thought they were proud of that. That was repulsive to me. I aggressively called this out, including the guy who was behind it, who later denied, we didn’t do that. But we did do that.
LB: You look in the US, I think, luckily, we’ve missed out on most of the insanity. But you have California, which I think has doubled down a lot. They have $8 gas in some places. They have the second highest electricity bills in the country. It is crazy what happens in California.
CW: Yeah, California, they used to have similar electricity prices to Florida. Today, they’re more than twice as high as Florida. Just in the last 15 years, this has been driven. Here’s another funny fact. Even though they have way more people than Florida, California produces 20% less electricity than Florida does, but at a way higher cost.
They have declining electricity production. Maybe most telling, they have the highest adjusted poverty rate of any state in the nation. Just because people that make a wage that would be not a bad lifestyle wage in middle America, it’s just very hard to live in California, to pay very high utility bills, to pay very high gasoline, to fill your truck, to go to your job.
They’ve made life really rough in California for low-income people, which has been my passion. What we want energy to do is to lift people up, give them broader life opportunities, longer lives, higher quality lives. Enjoy the wonderful things you and I enjoy, Lucy, and in our own country. California just pedals hard against that. They keep just so many millions of people needlessly in poverty
As he said, on a climate perspective, they don’t even move the needle. California gets a greater percent of its energy from oil and gas than the rest of the country as a whole. 76% of all the energy consumed in California comes from oil and gas. It’s not like they’ve gotten rid of oil and gas. They’ve just made them more expensive. They’ve just made it harder for people to pay their bills. They’re not changing at all global greenhouse gas emissions. The biggest source of electricity, all the money is in the electricity sector. It’s just one sector of energy. But what’s the biggest source of electricity in California? It’s natural gas.
LB: What’s the second biggest source imported from other states? Have you done the numbers or have other people done the numbers? If we were even to go to net zero, say the dream is accomplished, we accomplish this utopia, what is it?
CW: It would prevent 0.1 degrees of warming, maybe, hypothetically. If the US did, yes. I did this. if the whole US went net zero, you wouldn’t quite get to 0.1 degrees C reduction in warming. That’s like a century or more out from here. It’s just nothing. In Colorado, my own state passed a law of it. It wouldn’t even be close to 1,100th of a degree. We couldn’t even measure that difference.
When these states pass these net zero policies, they think they’re saving the climate. All they’re doing is making energy more expensive in their state. Economic activity just moves out of their state. They aren’t even doing the reductions they think they’re doing. Most of it’s just moving emissions from this jurisdiction to that jurisdiction. The atmosphere doesn’t care where the emissions came from.
LB:Offshoring or manufacturing to China and India where these places don’t have the policies that we have. The emissions just move there. Exactly. I would say, yeah, United Kingdom, you could argue their net impact on emissions has been up, not down.
CW: Right, because it’s going to dirtier places. From natural gas manufacturing to coal manufacturing, and then all the massive transport to move the goods back around the world back to the UK. To me, climate change is a real thing. I’m interested in it. The only needle mover so far has been natural gas. If nuclear energy becomes huge, today it’s still less than 5% of global energy, but someday I think it’s going to be 30, 40, 50. It’s going to be a giant percent of global energy. That may be generations from now, but we want to get that ball moving because it can be a giant global energy source.
Wind and solar never can be because they’re very energy intensive to make them. They only work intermittently and they take so much land. They’re only in the electricity sector. All the electricity sector combined around the whole planet delivers 20% of global primary energy. They’re going to top out. You can’t build solar panels and wind turbines without massive hydrocarbons. They’re never going to be meaningful to global energy supply.
Nuclear can be meaningful to global energy supply. It’s just much more energy dense. It works 24-7.
You can get not just electricity, you can get process heat out, which is the biggest and most important form of energy. It’s high temperature process heat to make steel, to make cement, to make aluminum, to make polysilicon, to make plastics, to make all of the materials that make our lives possible.
LB: What is your priority right now as Energy Secretary? Is it grid reliability? Is it affordability? Is it all of the above? What do you think?
CW: It’s all of the above. We better energize our country. People are frustrated because in the Biden administration, electricity prices went up 30% and we didn’t produce any more electricity at the end. We didn’t get any benefit. We just got higher costs. No meaningful movement on greenhouse gas emissions. What we want to do is stop the rise in electricity prices, ultimately see them go down. We want to see a lot of jobs in manufacturing come back to our country. We’re building a new aluminum smelter in the United States. We’re reshoring semiconductor manufacturing.
We’re still going to trade with the rest of the world. All that’s going to happen, but more of this should be built in the United States. With these intelligence factories, data centers, they consume a lot of electricity, but they deliver just massive productivity. They’re going to raise people’s income. They’re going to help us find cures for cancer. They’re going to help us find cures for all sorts of conditions that are death sentences today. Our kids are going to live a longer, healthier life than previous generations because the pace of innovation is going to be unbelievable.
LB: Let’s talk about AI data centers a bit because they seem to be the new enemy number one, kind of like fracking was, I would say, in the 2010s where everyone was freaking out about fracking. Now everyone’s freaking out about AI data centers. They’re guzzling water, electricity. Can you give me the facts on what is the reality of this situation? It’s the same script, the same facts, and the same people, and the same groups. It’s just easy to sell fear, and it’s hard to sell reassurance.
CW:They say they guzzle energy. They’re driving up your electricity prices. The data is actually the opposite. The states with the fastest demand growth with electricity have the best price performance. The states with the fastest rising electricity, like California, Massachusetts, and Maryland, they actually have declining demand for electricity. When you build a new data center, you’ve got to build a new electricity generation together with it, which is what we’re doing right now.
You build more generation than the data center will consume. The data center builders will pre-fund the generation of this. Then we sign these multi-year, three to five-year rate freezes on electricity. I mean, dead in its track, the rise in electricity prices is over. In fact, that’s the start of the pathway. Because they’re adding more to the grid? Because they’re adding more to the grid than they’re going to be consuming from it, and they’re adding reliable, dispatchable sources. The greater percent you have of reliable electricity, the lower your electricity prices are going to have. The more intermittent sources you have, the more kit you have to operate to deliver the same amount of electricity, it’s just more expensive.
LB: You could see places like Apple or Google, these places building these AI data centers, which are private companies, essentially adding to the grid because they need the capacity?
CW:They are doing that today. Google did a great deal in Georgia, signed an agreement up front to build, to invest, to build this new electric generating capacity while they’re building their data center. They got a four-year rate freeze before their data center is even done. Everyone in Georgia that had these huge electricity price rises in the last three, four, five years, they’re not going to have them the next three or four years.
Same thing in Alabama. We did the same thing in Indiana. Now, it’s not statewide yet, but it’s in the regions where these data centers are. The more these data centers go in, the more we’re going to stop all of the rises in electricity. The more we’re going to grow jobs in those areas, particularly blue-collar jobs. By this, making it hard to permit and build stuff in our country, we sent so many of these manufacturing jobs overseas and we stripped our rural communities of a lot of their job base.
This led to opioid and depression and all sorts of social problems, as well as the economic problems.
Data centers and reshoring manufacturing is going to bring
high-paying jobs back to those regions and areas.
In fact, we’re quickly going to go from people struggling, they’ve got good skills, but they can’t find a job. We’re going to have a shortage of people with those skills. I’m going to welcome this because it’s already raising wages and it’s going to get more people in high school to say, hey, maybe I’m good with my hands or I’m super interested in building and repairing things, as most kids are. That’s an awesome career opportunity. I’m going to develop those skills. I’m going to get out of high school and two years later be making $100,000 a year and have a career path to double and triple my income in the next few decades. That’s restoring the American dream to people that don’t live in New York City and are highly successful.
LB: One more thing before we move on from AI data centers is the water. That’s just one thing I hear so much. I believe it’s very overstated, but you’ve seen AOC has a jug of dirty water in Congress. What’s going on with that?
CW: It was the same thing they said with fracking. It’s taking all the water. It’s just complete nonsense. We trotted out the numbers. Golf courses use four times more water than all the fracking in the whole United States. Golf courses use far more water than all the data centers in the United States. In fact, most of the new data centers now are built with these closed-loop cooling systems and they use almost no water. You take these giant data centers. We visited one in Iowa. It’s 600 acres, so almost a square mile, but it’s $55 billion that are being invested in there. 10,000 high-paying jobs. It’s incredibly exciting. That 600-acre data center will use the amount of water equivalent to farming corn on two acres. It’s just a tiny amount of water. The water thing is just, if you can scare people about water, you can scare people. It’s just pure fiction, but it works, but it’s false.
LB: If you’re looking ahead at the energy mix, it’s nuclear, natural gas. What does that mix to you, ideally?
CW: Those are the two biggest drivers for sure. If you want to build new generation today, what’s the most cost-effective? I mean, natural gas just hands down. The United States just has a massive amount of natural gas. 20 years ago, we had 1,000 rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States. We were the biggest importer in the world of natural gas. Today, we’re the largest exporter of natural gas in the world. We’ve more than doubled our production, and we have a little over 100 rigs running for natural gas. Think of that efficiency and technology. Just 90% less drilling rigs, massively more production, and just centuries of gas.
I went to MIT to work on fusion energy. That’s going to come too. That’s what powers the stars. It’s so exciting. We’re going to deliver that too. The challenge is going to be just making those machines cheap enough and economic enough that that makes sense to grow it. But humans are ingenious.
I suspect we’ll figure that out. Fusion will be a major energy source. In another generation or two, it’s coming.
LB: You’re prioritizing energy abundance. You’re rejiggering the entire globe around oil. I do think that the work you’re doing is still commando, but it’s not breaking through to the average person yet. I feel like there’s still this feeling of despair, and things are getting worse, and the AID centers are ruining the planet. Do you think there’ll become a point where what you’re doing will become just impossible to ignore?
CW: I think it’ll be during this administration, because I’ve done a lot to engage in dialogues with Democratic senators and Democratic governors. How much do you hear about climate change from Democrats now? Massively less. When you do, it’s the wackos on the far left. The more moderate Democrats, I was shocked to hear them say climate crisis, and we’re going to prevent this. If you met them at a cocktail party dinner, these are normal people. We’re saying just crazy stuff about climate change. We published a paper last summer from the DOE, an overview of climate change by five awesome climate scientists. We’re bringing out the facts that you talk about, Lucy, straight to the politicians in Washington.
Of course, a lot of them are realizing, they may have gone a little too far on that. The New England governors that didn’t want more natural gas to come to New England, all of them say, yeah, we want that pipeline now. We are changing the Overton window of what’s possible in politics permanently.
If crazy AOC becomes president, that pendulum will swing back, but it will not be able to go back to where it was, because it was just so foolish. Too many people are puncturing that bubble. By making energy more expensive and claiming you’re saving the world from climate change, you’re not moving global greenhouse gas emissions, and climate change is a slow moving thing.
We should stop scaring kids, running around with our heads on fire, preventing young people like you from wanting to have children because they think the world’s falling apart. How do we ever make a world a better place by making young people pessimistic and fearful, and wrongly pessimistic and fearful? That’s just crazy town. What we’re trying to do is engage, engage, engage on those dialogues, on those discussions to make people realize energy matters, cost of energy matters to the quality of people’s lives.
The world just needs massively more energy. I’m not an advocate for one energy source or the other. I’m just an advocate for humans and math. The advantages of oil, gas, and coal today are so compelling, but to me, that’s the excitement. Let’s drive nuclear forward. Let’s make it so it is compelling. It can compete and ultimately displace hydrocarbons. The next generation downhole geothermal that I first worked on 30 years ago and then more recently, that is coming. There’s a 400 megawatt, firm, reliable, dispatchable power plant being built in Utah. Gigawatts of new geothermal power will be developed in the Western United States and could ultimately be deployed in the Eastern U.S. in the near future.
Fusion energy’s coming, you know, any new energy innovations and technology, we’re for all of them. We are still researching in our labs on new solar technologies. We’re truly the ones for whatever works, whatever the mass supports. What we’re not for is subsidizing some energy technologies that we know have a low ceiling, making energy more expensive, and trying to strangle the stuff that actually works and is realiable and affordable. We’re just trying to bring common sense and science back. And by doing that, the world is going to be better energized. Economic opportunities are going to grow Costs are going to go down, and people are going to be more optimistic about their futures. The next generation is going to have the greatest world ever. I can’t wait to see it unfold.
LB: So, you think electricity costs are going to come down? You think that will happen?
CW: They’re going to freeze first, which in inflation-adjusted terms is equivalent to coming down. And then 5 to 10 year down, if we continue these policies, you will start to see electricity prices coming down even in nominal terms.
LB: And $2 gas, is that in my future?
CW: It certainly could be. Gasoline prices are going to continue to lower throughout the Trump administration because we’re growing energy production. We’re just bringing common sense back to the processes to deliver gasoline to your house and all that. In inflation-adjusted terms, gasoline will continue to go down meaningfully in percent of your wallet, percent of you pocketbook, which is really what matters. You know, gasoline prices could be near an all-time low by the end of the Trump administration.
An unusual and unexplained warming spike rose from -0.07C 2023/01 to a peak of 0.94C 2024/04. Temps then steadily declined to a low of 0.35C in 2026/01. Now there is a rise up to 0.68C in 2026/08. Historical records show that around 1875 was the coldest time in the last 10,000 years. That was the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA), and since then temperatures have warmed at an average rate of about 0.5C per century. The recovery of the biosphere and ocean warming resulted in rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Syun-Ichi Akasofu, founder of the University of Alaska Fairbanks’ Geophysical Institute reported on this pattern in 2009.
At times, there are warming spikes, in the 1930s and 40s for example, and the rate of rising CO2 goes up. At other times, such as 1950s and 60s, temperatures cool, and rising CO2 slows down. More recently, in 2023 and 24, we saw temperatures spike up before falling back down in 2025 and now in 2026. [Note: A study of ocean biochemistry processes confirms that since the end of the LIA rising temperatures have been accompanied by rising CO2 at a rate of ~2 ppm per year. [ See: Slam Dunk: Δtemp Drives Δco2, Ocean Biochemistry at Work ]
Furthermore, going back to previous warmings prior to the satellite record shows that the entire rise of 0.8C since 1947 is due to oceanic, not human activity.
Importantly, the theory of human-caused global warming asserts that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere changes the baseline and causes systemic warming in our climate. On the contrary, all of the warming since 1947 was episodic, coming from three brief events associated with oceanic cycles. And in 2024 we saw an amazing episode with a temperature spike driven by ocean air warming in all regions, along with rising NH land temperatures, then dropping well below its peak.
Previously I have demonstrated that changes in atmospheric CO2 levels follow changes in Global Mean Temperatures (GMT) as shown by satellite measurements from University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH). A link to that background post is provided later below.
This post updates the analysis with the most current observations, testing the premise that temperature changes are predictive of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The chart at the top shows the two monthly datasets: CO2 levels in blue reported at Mauna Loa, and Global temperature anomalies in purple reported by UAHv6.1, both through August 2026. Would such a sharp increase in temperature be reflected in rising CO2 levels, according to the successful mathematical forecasting model? Would CO2 levels decline as temperatures dropped following the peak?
The answer is yes: that temperature spike resulted
in a corresponding CO2 spike as expected. Lower CO2 levels followed the temperature decline, now rising again.
Above are UAH temperature anomalies compared to CO2 monthly changes year over year.
Changes in monthly CO2 synchronize with temperature fluctuations, which for UAH are anomalies referenced to the 1991-2020 period. CO2 differentials are calculated for the present month by subtracting the value for the same month in the previous year (for example August 2026 minus August 2025). Temp anomalies are calculated by comparing the present month with the baseline month. Note the 2023-24 CO2 upward spike and 2025 drop following the temperature drop. The CO2 differential bottomed 2026/04 and is now rising again.
The table below shows clearly the pattern of observed temperatures declining along with declining rates of rising observed CO2. The CO2 rate peaked at 4.41 ppm, then declined over the next 25 months to 1.48 ppm, nearly the baseline rate since the LIA. There are fluctuations in the CO2 monthly response since the differential is influenced by the previous year as well as current year. By 2026/4, the rate of 1.48 ppm was one-third of the peak rate of 4.41 ppm.
Month
Temperature Anomaly
CO2 Diff. from Previous Year
2024\1
0.79
3.32
2024\2
0.86
4.23
2024\3
0.87
4.41
2024\4
0.94
3.14
2024\5
0.78
2.87
2024\6
0.7
3.25
2024\7
0.74
3.72
2024\8
0.75
3.31
2024\9
0.8
3.53
2024\10
0.73
3.56
2024\11
0.64
3.39
2024\12
0.62
3.54
2025\1
0.46
3.85
2025\2
0.5
2.54
2025\3
0.58
2.77
2025\4
0.61
3.13
2025\5
0.5
3.61
2025\6
0.48
2.70
2025\7
0.36
2.32
2025\8
0.39
2.49
2025\9
0.53
2.34
2025\10
0.53
2.49
2025\11
0.43
2.61
2025\12
0.3
2.09
2026\1
0.35
1.97
2026\2
0.39
2.26
2026\3
0.38
2.01
2026\4
0.39
1.48
2026\5
0.53
1.83
2026\6
0.46
1.83
2026\7
0.48
1.25
2026\8
0.68
1.85
The final proof that CO2 follows temperature due to stimulation of natural CO2 reservoirs is demonstrated by the ability to calculate CO2 levels since 1979 with a simple mathematical formula:
For each subsequent year, the CO2 level for each month was generated
CO2 this month this year = a + b × Temp this month this year + CO2 this month last year
The values for a and b are constants applied to all monthly temps, and are chosen to scale the forecasted CO2 level for comparison with the observed value. Here is the result of those calculations.
In the chart calculated CO2 levels correlate with observed CO2 levels at 0.9989 out of 1.0000. This mathematical generation of CO2 atmospheric levels is only possible if they are driven by temperature-dependent natural sources, and not by human emissions which are small in comparison, rise steadily and monotonically. For a more detailed look at the recent fluxes, here are the results since 2015, an ENSO neutral year.
For this recent period, the calculated CO2 values match well the annual highs, while some annual generated values of CO2 are slightly higher or lower than observed at other months of the year. Still the correlation for this period is 0.9944.
Key Point
Changes in CO2 follow changes in global temperatures on all time scales, from last month’s observations to ice core datasets spanning millennia. Since CO2 is the lagging variable, it cannot logically be the cause of temperature, the leading variable. It is folly to imagine that by reducing human emissions of CO2, we can change global temperatures, which are obviously driven by other factors.
From 10.000 Years to 4: One Equation Falsifies the Entire IPCC CO₂ Narrative – by Jonathan Cohler
The video above is a recent presentation by Jonathan Cohler at EIKE ( European Climate and Energy Institute). The english audio is available. He does a complete and evidence-based destruction of IPCC “concensus” Climate Science. For those prefering to read I provide a transcript lightly edited from the captions, along with some bolds and key exhibits from the talk.
Just very briefly, I’m Jonathan Cohler. I’m a Harvard-trained physicist, AI researcher, software developer. I serve on the Heartland Institute’s Board of Policy Advisors, and I’m a member of the CO2 Coalition. And over the past year, I’ve authored six climate papers, both peer-reviewed and pre-print, with illustrious co-authors including Willie Soon, David Legates, Keston Green, and Ole Humlum.
Collectively, the papers falsify the entire IPCC framework.
I presented some of this at Heartland’s conference in Washington this April, but today at EIKE is the first public presentation of our newest paper on the bomb radiocarbon falsification of the IPCC CO2 attribution, and more. So I’m going to start here by sharing my screen with you so you can see the presentation. So for 38 years, numerous IPCC purported metrics and associated lies have been paraded before the world as settled science.
Today, I’m going to show you that none of them are true, and most aren’t even real. One note on language I use, I use the word lie in its plain sense, a statement that is not true. Intent is not part of the definition. Orwell’s 2 plus 2 equals 5 is a lie regardless of who says it or why. When I call an IPCC claim a lie, I’m stating it’s false.
That said, intent in this case is not in doubt. The IPCC has had 38 years of access to all the data and the resources of every major government on earth. It knows what it has been promulgating, it knows what it has been suppressing, and significant numbers of scientists know as well. I won’t name any individuals, they know who they are, but I will name the institution, the IPCC.
My presentation is based on five papers, my 2025 peer-reviewed paper, building on Essex et al., 2007, and proving again that global mean surface temperature, GMST, does not exist. Our 2026 peer-reviewed paper on the invalidity of Argo-based ocean heat content with co-authors Dave Legates, Keston Green, Ole Humlum, Franklin Soon, and Willie Soon. Our 2026 paper with co-author Willie Soon on the dominance of natural CO2 dynamics currently under review.
My pre-print proving my new physical tether theorem. And most recently, our paper with co-author Willie Soon analyzing 50 years of global bomb radiocarbon decay, falsifying the key assumptions of the IPCC carbon cycle framework. I want to acknowledge all my co-authors, and in particular, my mentor and dear friend Willie Soon, whose decades of courageous work made much of this possible. I also want to honor the truly seminal contributions of Christopher Essex and Demetris Koutsoyiannis, whose work laid the foundation for all my papers here.
So let’s start with the verdict. Every major public-facing claim of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, is scientifically invalid and categorically false. Not uncertain, not weakened, not in need of more research, false. I’ll prove this in the next 35 minutes or so by math, physics, and data. Words lie. Math does not. A statement is either derivable from its premises or not. There is no, quote, 97% of mathematicians agree nonsense. There’s proof or there isn’t.
For 38 years, the IPCC has paraded a framework draped in equations, satellite data, supercomputer models, academy awards, even Nobel Prizes. A snake eating its own tail. Each piece appears to validate the next. Once you see that the circle is empty, the entire framework collapses. Each lie leads to the next. None stand on their own.
GMST,Global mean surface temperature, the number that has purportedly risen 1.1 degrees since 1850, the number whose further rise to 1.5 or 2 degrees is, “catastrophic”, what some have called, “the most important number in the world”. CMIP, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, those are the general circulation models tuned to reproduce GMST.
OHC stands for Ocean Heat Content,a physically meaningless global aggregate constructed by the same averaging machinery as GMST. EEI, Earth’s Energy Imbalance, the energy gain inferred from OHC overriding satellite radiation measurements. CO2, atmospheric carbon dioxide, the persistence and attribution modeled by Bern impulse response functions validated against CMIP purported driving force in the entire attribution chain.
And then the loop closes back on itself. GMST tunes the models. The models produce Bern. Bern produces the budgets. Budgets define the targets. Targets are written in GMST. Each of the five nodes is independently falsified by physics, data, and math.
Let’s begin. Node 1, GMST is physically meaningless.
It’s the anchor of every policy claim. The Paris Agreement is written in degrees of GMST. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is defined in GMST. Transient climate response is defined in GMST. Attribution regressions use GMST as a dependent variable. CMIP models are tuned to reproduce GMST trajectories.
But GMST was proven meaningless in a 2007 paper by Essex, McKitrick, and Andresen unrefuted in 19 years. Two months ago, my physical tether theorem paper established from axioms of classical science alone that GMST cannot exist in the real world. It’s completely physically meaningless.
You take valid local thermometer readings, average them, get a global average. Seems right. Why not? Think telephone numbers. Average the phone numbers of everyone in Boston and Halle. Then ask three simple questions. Whose phone number is it? Is it a phone number? Does it mean anything at all?
Temperature is an intensive property defined only under local
thermodynamic equilibrium in single connected systems, like a
phone number that applies to one point on a telecom network.
The Earth’s surface, oceans, and atmosphere are not in equilibrium. They’re an open-driven non-equilibrium system. Persistent gradients, persistent fluxes, in-homogeneity at every scale. Physics has no law for aggregating local temperatures into a global mean. Disconnected systems cannot affect each other. Unlike quantum mechanical spooky action at a distance, which Einstein doubted and my friend and colleague John Clauser proved real, there is no thermodynamics at a distance.
The temperature in Boston has zero effect on the temperature in Halle. Temperature is defined only in a connected equilibrium system, and it is precisely the partial derivative of U, internal energy, with respect to S, entropy. Every thermometer agrees.
For an aggregate of disconnected systems, there is no thermodynamics, period. The GMST formulas imposed by the IPCC, NASA, or NOAA are just made up. The output is a number, not a temperature. Not anything in the physical, real world. The 2007 Essex paper showed the consequences for averaging arithmetic, area weighted, mass weighted, fourth root, enthalpy weighted. They all yield different numbers and different trends from the same data.
The choice is arbitrary. This isn’t a quarrel over data adjustments. We’re not talking about urban heat islands, homogenization, data improvement. No amount of data improvements can fix a category error. No averaging convention can rescue it. My physical tether theorem states it formally.
An abstract math formula is scientifically valid if and only if it is connected to the physical world by a unique, physical law-governed objective link. For a connected, equilibrated system, that link exists. Temperature is precisely the partial derivative of U with respect to S, and every valid thermometer agrees. A unique mapping exists. For disconnected systems, no physics, no mapping, just arbitrary statistical aggregations with no unique operational definition. The outputs are meaningless numbers.
GMST is a number the IPCC has falsely labeled as a temperature. Consequences are immediate and total. The 1.5 degree C limit is not a physical threshold. It’s an arbitrary number with a fake label applied to a meaningless calculation. The claim that the planet is warm by 1.1 degrees C is not a measurement. The equilibrium climate sensitivity defined as a change in GMST per CO2 doubling is equally physically meaningless.
The AR5 attribution statement, “more than half of observed warming is anthropogenic”, is a regression on a dependent variable that doesn’t exist. Every claim built on GMST is null and void. And AR6 went further. They abandoned their own calibrated uncertainty language and declared human influence, “unequivocal”, and then proceeded to use the word at least 37 times.
Unequivocal is not a science word. Science does not produce unequivocal claims.
Math proofs do. Empirical science operates within probability and falsifiability. Karl Popper settled this long ago. By its own word choice, the IPCC has abandoned science. Node 1 falsified. Every quantity dependent on GMST collapses with it.
Node 2, CMIP models are tuned to a fiction.
Every IPCC projection comes from CMIP, the coupled model intercomparison project. The models are tuned so simulated GMST matches the numerically calculated and physically meaningless GMST. Remember, there is no observed GMST. Those are just Orwellian words that the IPCC uses. It is purely a calculation.
Models that fail to reproduce historical GMST are discarded or retuned. GMST is physically meaningless. The model tuning target is physically meaningless. The model extracted parameters are extracted against a physically meaningless target. This is not a small effect. Cloud feedbacks, radiative forcing, equilibrium climate sensitivity, transient climate response, every one is an emergent property of models optimized against a physically meaningless target.
Equilibrium climate sensitivity, look at what IPCC actually means by this. ECS is defined as the change in GMST between models at 280 and 560 ppm CO2 both run to model equilibrium. But the earth is never in equilibrium. The fact that a model converges to equilibrium proves it isn’t modeling the earth. The equilibrium is a feature of the model, not the earth.
And even that’s not true. The CMIP model purveyors don’t actually run to that fictional equilibrium. They run 150 years or so, observe the drift, and extrapolate. They assume the model will reach an equilibrium that it never reaches.
ECS is an assumed extrapolation of an unreached state of a model
that fails reality at the level of being able to converge in the first place.
All to promulgate a number physically meaningless by definition. If A is meaningless and B is meaningless, then A minus B is meaningless. A and B are both meaningless GMST values. I know this is twisted IPCC Orwellian stuff, but follow me here because this is what is actually happening. Trillions of dollars of policy are calibrated to a number that does not exist in the real world, to a fake equilibrium state that never occurs in a model that fails to represent earth by virtue of having that equilibrium state in the first place.
And the model itself contains essentially none of the physics that drives earth’s permanent non-equilibrium state, namely meaningful cloud microphysics and feedbacks, real solar variability, turbulence, phase changes, biological dissipation, and more. Node 2, falsified.
Node 3, IPCC’s Argo-derived ocean heat content is physically meaningless.
You’ll notice I keep repeating those words. It’s not just a tick. My personal favorite from the circle of lies. Argo has deployed roughly 4,400 autonomous floats across the oceans. Each measures local temperature, salinity, and pressure as they drift.
And ocean heat content is a real physical concept and a physical
phenomenon, but what the IPCC presents as ocean heat content is not.
Orwell strikes again. Argo-derived IPCC OHC is a global statistical aggregate fabricated from local measurements through five layers of processing that destroy all physical meaning. This is the official Argo map, and it looks impressive, but it’s cropped to hide the poles and doesn’t differentiate deep from upper floats.
This is the real picture from NOAA showing every float that surfaced in the 12 days prior to March 25. Look at the poles. Virtually no floats beyond 60 degrees. And the entire deep Argo fleet has deployed only 230 floats to the bottom half of the ocean, below 2,000 meters, where literally half of the thermal energy resides. But the Argo program calls that, “nearly complete global coverage” in perfect Orwell style. Let that sink in for a moment.
Half the ocean’s volume sits below 2,000 meters, and it’s not sampled at all.Twenty-five percent of the surface is excluded entirely. Continental shelves, the Mediterranean, South China Sea, the Arctic, all ice-covered regions, add continental slopes and polar undersampling, and the IPCC interpolation scheme covers at most 40 percent of ocean volume.
Within the 40 percent, the volume actually sampled around the temperature sensors is one part per billion, 10 to the ninth. So here’s how each of the 4,200 non-deep floats works. They descend to 1,000 meters. They drift for nine days doing nothing. They drop down to 2,000 meters. They ascend slowly to the surface over 6 to 10 hours, collecting about 1,000 temperature measurements. Then they spend about 15 minutes at the surface to get a GPS time and location fix, transmit the measurements to a satellite, rinse and repeat for a few years until the battery dies.
Now, to be fair, that’s valid local data gathering,
but that’s also where reality ends.
Five steps destroy the physics. Number one, there is no subsurface positioning. Every measurement from the ascent is assigned to the one surface GPS time and location fix. Two, 12,000 profiles per month are extrapolated onto 45,000 grid cells using correlation scales up to 2,800 kilometers. Every single gridded value is calculated, not measured, and extrapolation does not increase information content. It decreases it. Number three, the same invalid process constructs a reference climatology over an arbitrary 15-year baseline, adding an entire other layer of invalid averaging.
Then anomalies are computed, which we like to call the ghost minus ghost trick, a discrete sum over these calculated meaningless anomalies, not an integral, which would require continuous data, multiplied by incorrectly assumed constant density and heat capacity.
EEI is then declared to be 0.7 plus or minus 0.2 watts per square meter
despite 60% of the ocean unsampled and true uncertainty easily
exceeding plus or minus 1 watt per square meter.
The actual result, EEI (Earth’s Energy Imbalance) is no different from zero. Even without thermodynamic nullification, at least seven independent uncertainty sources, mesoscale variability, deep ocean ignorance, sea level closure, framework bias, baseline bias, and more easily exceed plus or minus 1 watt per meter squared. The claimed signal of 0.7 is smaller than the noise. Now in 1998, the founding document designed ARGO for real-time forecasting, namely hurricane intensification, marine weather, search and rescue, ship routing, fisheries, ENSO outlooks, decision windows of hours to weeks. Neither ARGO nor land weather stations were designed for centennial energy accounting. The original ARGO objectives contained no mention whatsoever of global ocean heat content or earth energy imbalance because ARGO was never designed for global climate monitoring.
That idea was forced on the system more than a decade later during ClimateGate when Kevin Trenberth emailed hockey stick Michael Mann and the entire climate science hockey team. He wrote,
“We can’t account for the lack of warming, and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data shows there should be even more warming, but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate”.
What followed was a 12-year program to repurpose ARGO as the global energy accounting tool, force series to match ARGO, and codify the result into AR6 as EEI equals 0.7 plus or minus 0.2. Our OHC paper published on March 10th this year agrees with Trenberth’s 2009 assessment. His response a few days later, he said, “It is absolute nonsense. I don’t want to waste my time on it”. Clearly, we’re over the target. Node 3 falsified. ARGO derived OHC is physically meaningless.
Node 4, Earth’s energy imbalance is indistinguishable from zero.
First, look at the name, Earth’s energy imbalance. Watts are power, not energy. The correct name would be net radiative flux or power balance at the top of the atmosphere. But honesty is not an IPCC concern. The IPCC’s founding mandate charges them with assessing, “the risk of human-induced climate change”. Not whether humans are causing it, but that humans are causing it. The conclusion is built into the question.
EEI is computed in one of two ways.First, from CERES top of atmosphere satellite measured net radiation flux. And second, from ARGO derived OHC growth divided by Earth’s surface area and elapsed time. The CERES team itself admitted in Loeb et al. 2018 that its instruments cannot measure the absolute energy budget. And yet AR6 figure 7.2 went ahead and reported EEI as 0.7 plus or minus 0.2 watts per square meter with no caveat. Notice, by the way, that the number sits down at the surface on the ocean, not at the top of the atmosphere.
Hmm. Where does that number come from? CERES quietly reports an absolute imbalance of 4.3 watts per square meter, then silently adjusts it to match the ARGO derived 0.7. The matched values are then cited as independent confirmation of each other. AR6 page 935 documents the adjustment openly. Circular reasoning, not validation. The signal is indistinguishable from zero. Node 4, falsified.
Node 5, bomb radiocarbon falsification of the carbon cycle.
My newest paper with Willie Soon titled, One Equation Reproduces 54 Years of Bomb Radiocarbon Decay and Challenges Central Assumptions of the IPCC Carbon Cycle Framework. We extracted two atmospheric time scales precisely from the data. It falsifies every Bern IRF model the IPCC has published. It shows post-industrial CO2 rise is natural. And it closes every standard IPCC and consensus escape hatch, including the Suess effect.
Between 1955 and 1963, atmospheric thermonuclear, aka hydrogen bomb testing, roughly doubled atmospheric carbon-14, known as radiocarbon. After the 1963 test ban, the excess decayed. We have measured that continuously for over 50 years. This is the most precise impulse response experiment ever done. We created the pulse. The atmosphere gave us the response. No model, no tuning, a direct measurement of nature’s eeigenvalue.
The IPCC has had this data set for 40 years and never used it to check,
validate, or falsify any of its carbon cycle claims.
They ignored it. We don’t. Start with two definitions from AR6 glossary, page 2237. Number one, “carbon dioxide is an extreme example. Its turnover time is only about four years” because of the rapid exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean and terrestrial biota. Number two, “response time or adjustment time is the time scale characterizing the decay of an instantaneous pulse into the reservoir”. Both are measured atmospheric quantities.
The global measured turnover time given by atmospheric inventory divided by gross output flux is 3.8 plus or minus 0.12 years. Computed two independent ways. First, snapshot mass balance from AR6 figure 512 and refined reservoir routing on Mauna Loa data. They agreed to better than 1% supported by dozens of peer-reviewed studies over 40 years. Even the IPCC quotes about four years.
The adjustment time, the decay of an instantaneous pulse is exactly what the radiocarbon experiment measures. The 1955 to 63 nuclear tests were the pulse. The answer, decay time scale is 18.383 plus or minus 0.015 years. Single exponential R squared 99.998% over 54 years.
Using the IPCC’s own AR6 definitions, the two atmospheric time scales are 3.8 years for CO2 turnover and 18.383 years for bomb radiocarbon adjustment time linked by the bridge equations shown on the slide. Not 1,000, not 10,000, not hundreds of thousands. That’s what the data says. Now, look at what the IPCC has published. The Bern IRF model is the carbon cycle equation underlying every IPCC CO2 projection, every global warming potential, every CO2 equivalent number, every remaining carbon budget, every net zero pathway. The IPCC labels its time scales as policy relevant, then applies the Bern IRF models at 100, 200, 500, and even 1,000 year horizons.
The IPCC’s published Bern IRF models take a specific mathematical form, a permanent fraction, A0, plus a sum of exponentials. AR2 used five exponentials, AR3 through 6 used three exponentials. Now, look at the E folding time, T sub 1 over E. AR5 and 6 say it’s 165 years, AR4 says it’s 96 years, AR3 says it’s 46, and AR2 says it’s 41. Look at the permanent fraction, A0. AR5 and 6 say it’s 22%, AR4 says it’s 22, AR3 said it was 15, and AR2 said it was 14%. Very strange.
Now, look at the tau 1, which is the longest time constant. AR5 and 6 said it was 394 years, AR4 said it was 173, AR3 said it was 171, and AR2 said it was 372. Real physical impulse responses don’t double and halve and double again as modeling groups update their codes.
The bomb radiocarbon record was a single exponential decay the whole time. Bern was not. Now, look at all four Bern IRFs against the actual data. Everyone diverges within the first year or two. The Bern models predict 33 to 48% of a pulse will remain after 54 years. The data at 54 years says 4%.
The divergence from reality grows dramatically, a factor of 10 by 2020, a factor of 90 by 100 years, and a factor of 18,500 at 200 years. What does the IPCC say? AR5 box 6.1, multiple residence times for an excess of carbon dioxide emitted in the atmosphere, stating, “15 to 40% of CO2 emitted until 2100 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years”.
Now, step back for a moment. Why are they using this functional form at all? Why a sum of exponentials with a permanent constant added? The multi-exponential family is the natural function class for linear relaxation processes. That part is correct mathematics. But the family is general. The simplest member of the family, which is one exponential with no permanent fraction, decays to zero with a single time constant. Exactly what the data shows, 18.383 years, permanent fraction zero.
The data picks the simplest answer within the IPCC’s own function class. But the IPCC doesn’t allow that answer. Their published forms require permanent fractions from 14 to 22%. They require three or more exponentials. And neither of those requirements comes from physics or reality.
There are constraints imposed on top of the function class
to purposely exclude the single exponential point.
Why? The single exponential has no permanent fraction. The permanent fraction is the entire policy payload. It’s what creates the multi-thousand year residence result. It is the lie buried in the math. It justifies cumulative carbon budgets, net zero targets, the claim that an emission today is committing the atmosphere for a thousand years or more. All lies. Set the permanent fraction to what the data shows, i.e. zero, and the cumulative emissions framework collapses. Set the number of modes to what the data requires, i.e. one, and the long tail disappears. The function class is correct, but its constraints were chosen to to preserve a predetermined political conclusion.
Bern is parallel. Reality is serial. We call this the parallel serial fallacy. A sum of exponentials is the impulse response of independent parallel reservoirs each draining directly on its own time constant. That is how the Bern IRF manufactures the long tails.
But reality is serial. Carbon flows from the atmosphere to
the surface ocean. Surface ocean to the thermocline
to the deep ocean. Each stage feeds the next.
The deep ocean is not a parallel drain on the atmosphere. It is the end of a serial pipeline. Parallel and serial systems are governed by entirely differential equations with different solution spaces. No parameter choice in the parallel family produces the serial answer.
The actual physical serial cascade observed from upstream collapses to a single dominant fast mode. Exactly what the bomb radioarbon data show. Wrong differential equations, wrong solution space, wrong functional form, structural falsification.
Now, we play Whack-a-Lie, the thousand-year defense.
So, where does the thousand-year tale come from? What’s the evidence? Answer: There is none. Not from measurement, not from observation, not from math, only neverending popup assertions.
The first one that always pops up is 14 C is just a tracer. It’s not the bulk. We proved the operator equivalence theorem OE and it it closes that completely.12 CO2 and 14 CO2 are exchanged by the exact same physical processes. Their mass balance operators are identical up to a small fractionation factor. Identical linear operators have identical eigen values. The bulk and the tracer decay with the exact same time constants.
Whack that one and out pops, the bomb pulse is too small. So the Revel nonlinearity kicks in at larger amplitude. The the OE closes that too. eigenvalues are intrinsic to the linear operator, not the input amplitude. And there is no evidence of a global ocean sink slowing ever.
Whack that and we get revel plus slow deep ocean circulation manufactures the tail. Bern is parallel. Reality is serial. Rapid cycling to the thermocline drains the surface. The deep ocean is downstream, not in parallel. Whack that. You’ve now whacked all three. and they cycle back to tracer versus bulk as if you never mentioned it.
Now, one other defense I didn’t put on the slide. They’ll come and say, “But the surface ocean is observed to be saturating.” What they’re talking is about is there are three subtropical gyre stations between 22 and 32° north. One is called HOT in Hawaii,BATS in Bermuda, and ESOC in the Canary Islands. The combined area of those three points in the ocean is less than 1 millionth of the ocean surface.
The only regimes where revel buffering could show up first because gyres have the lowest exchange flux and the surface is only half the story. To slow that drain, the entire water column below down to the abyss would have to be saturated too with DIC (Dissolved Inorganic Carbon) . There is no such measurement. Argo OHC is meaningless. DIC sampling is even sparer. No global time series at policy precision.
And the IPCC’s claimed 2 and a half gigaton per year ocean sync isn’t measured at all. It’s a budget residual. Emissions minus atmospheric growth minus an alleged land sink. Even granting them their imaginary 2 gigaton per year ocean sink. The ocean holds 38,000 gigatons of carbon. That’s 0.66% per year below the precision of a single DIC measurement. That would be 666% per century. Saturation on any policy relevant time scale is mathematically impossible.
The bomb radiocarbon record proves it directly. Eight independent fit windows
across 50 years return the same value to within four parts in a thousand.
The global atmospheric sink rate has not slowed anywhere ever.
This is Whack-a-Lie. Each retreat has zero supporting evidence. When closed, another pops up. When they’re all closed, the cycle starts over again. They fail Popper’s criterion. The thousand-year claim is unfalsifiable by their own standards.
IPCC airborne fraction confusion.
The IPCC reports a “stable airborne fraction” of “about 44%” cited as evidence that the ocean sink will saturate. But there are two distinct quantities both commonly called airborne fraction totally contradictory and both used by the IPCC imperfect Orwellian double speak lock step.
First is called ABF subL where L stands for logical. That’s the fraction of cumulative anthropogenic mass still airborne exactly as in IPCC’s own glossary definition. Under mass balance with the 3.8 year residence time, ABF subL is approximately 5.3% not 44%.
The second is called ABF subC. C is for crazy. That’s my word. I think Koutsoyiannis called it computational, but I prefer crazy. The the annual ratio of atmospheric increase to anthropogenic emissions, that’s a year-by-year number. And from 1966 to 2019, it ranges between 18 to 77%. Up and down.It’s not like uniformly increasing or anything. It’s just randomly up and down between 18 and 77, a range factor of four.
The Orwellian “stable 44%” doesn’t exist. That arises only from unmentioned 15 to 30 year smoothing windows and then the constancy is a property of the smoothing operator. The variance collapses by a factor of two at a 4-year smoothing independently supporting our tow of 3.8 years.
The atmospheric CO2 inventory is rising. There is a net input of CO2. So what’s the signature of that net input? Note, I’m not talking about the signature of the atmosphere, but the signature of the net input to the atmosphere over the instrumental years. Koutsoyiannis measured it directly using the standard Keeling plot intercept method that you see on the screen. He calls the number delta 13 C subi meaning for input. Koutsoyiannis computed it across the 40 plus years from 1978 to 2022 at four clean air stations both hemispheres. The result -3.2 plus or minus.3 per mill constant no trend no drift.
Proxy reconstruction extended the analysis back 500 years to the little ice age. Same value invariant minus3. If fossil fuel carbon at 28 per mill were a significant fraction of the net input, the flux weighted signature would have to have drifted more negative values. It doesn’t. Fossil fuel carbon is below the detection threshold as a quantitative driver of the observed CO2 growth. Period.
The Suess effect that declining total atmospheric delta is evidence of fossil fuel dilution is completely falsified by this finding alone. The decline of total delta 13C by about 2 per mill is consistent with natural CO2 being added at the natural signature. But the constant net input signature of -3.2 per mill is not consistent with fossil fuel dilution. Suess effect al falsified. These three independent lines converge on the same verdict. The bomb radioarbon value which is 18.383 the constant delta 13 C subi which is -3.2 and the direct mass balance. Different physics, different data, same answer. The atmospheric rise of CO2 over 62 years is natural. The human contribution to the rise is negligible. Node 5 falsified.
The loop is closed. I’ve walked the circle of lies. GMST is not a physical quantity. It’s falsified by the physical tether theorem and Essex et al. CMIP is tuned to a fiction. OHC is an untethered global average over a non-equilibrium fluid. EI is indistinguishable from zero. Bern IRF mathematically incompatible with single exponential.
The rise is natural. The five nodes do not stand independently. GMST tunes the models. The models project OHC and EEI. The Bern IRF preserves the energy budget. The budget preserves GMST. Remove any node. The others lose their bases. Remove all five. The framework is gone. Every downstream quantity collapses with them. Every 1.52° threshold, every global warming potential, every CO2 equivalent number, every remaining carbon budget, it’s all void.
Every single IPCC climate metric is physically meaningless
because they’re all built on the same falsified constructs.
More than 30 IPCC metrics gone. All physically meaningless.
And now we’re back to the empty circle.
Their Whack-a-Lie Orwellian defense is that they have multiple lines of evidence. But even that fails because 5 * 0 equals 0. 38 years. How many of the major public-facing claims of the IPCC survive? Zero. Every major public-facing claim of the IPC is scientifically invalid and categorically false. For 38 years, the IPCC has rewritten Western energy policy. Net zero by 2050, hundreds of trillions in projected expenditure, bans on combustion engines, natural gas, the cancellation of modern industrial civilization.
The IPCC never subjected its claims to proper falsification.
It declared them facts by repetition. “Unequivocal” 37 times in AR6.
We performed the falsification steps. They skipped. Five hypotheses flatly falsified. Direct empirical absolute. 38 years. All lies. Zero physical foundation. Words lied. Math didn’t. Math never lies. Galileo told us that God wrote two books, the Bible and the universe itself. He said, “Philosophy is written in this grand book, the universe, in the language of mathematics. The math is the universe speaking. We listened. The IPCC did not.”
The post below updates the UAH record of air temperatures over land and ocean. Each month and year exposes again the growing disconnect between the real world and the Zero Carbon zealots. It is as though the anti-hydrocarbon band wagon hopes to drown out the data contradicting their justification for the Great Energy Transition. Yes, there was warming from an El Nino buildup coincidental with North Atlantic warming, but no basis to blame it on CO2.
As an overview consider how recent rapid cooling completely overcame the warming from the last 3 El Ninos (1998, 2010 and 2016). The UAH record shows that the effects of the last one were gone as of April 2021, again in November 2021, and in February and June 2022 At year end 2022 and continuing into 2023 global temp anomaly matched or went lower than average since 1995, an ENSO neutral year. (UAH baseline is now 1991-2020). Then there was an usual El Nino warming spike of uncertain cause, unrelated to steadily rising CO2, which dropped back toward normal values. Now in August 2026 there is again an El Nino peaking, albeit at a lower level.
For reference I added an overlay of CO2 annual concentrations as measured at Mauna Loa. While temperatures fluctuated up and down ending flat, CO2 went up steadily by ~66 ppm, an 18% increase.
Furthermore, going back to previous warmings prior to the satellite record shows that the entire rise of 0.8C since 1947 is due to oceanic, not human activity.
The animation is an update of a previous analysis from Dr. Murry Salby. These graphs use Hadcrut4 and include the 2016 El Nino warming event. The exhibit shows since 1947 GMT warmed by 0.8 C, from 13.9 to 14.7, as estimated by Hadcrut4. This resulted from three natural warming events involving ocean cycles. The most recent rise 2013-16 lifted temperatures by 0.2C. Previously the 1997-98 El Nino produced a plateau increase of 0.4C. Before that, a rise from 1977-81 added 0.2C to start the warming since 1947.
Importantly, the theory of human-caused global warming asserts that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere changes the baseline and causes systemic warming in our climate. On the contrary, all of the warming since 1947 was episodic, coming from three brief events associated with oceanic cycles. And in 2024 we saw an amazing episode with a temperature spike driven by ocean air warming in all regions, along with rising NH land temperatures, now dropping well below its peak.
Chris Schoeneveld has produced a similar graph to the animation above, with a temperature series combining HadCRUT4 and UAH6. H/T WUWT
August 2026 UAH Temps: Ocean and Land Warms in All Regions
With apologies to Paul Revere, this post is on the lookout for cooler weather with an eye on both the Land and the Sea. While you heard a lot about 2020-21 temperatures matching 2016 as the highest ever, that spin ignores how fast the cooling set in. The UAH data analyzed below shows that warming from the last El Nino had fully dissipated with chilly temperatures in all regions. After a warming blip in 2022, land and ocean temps dropped again with 2023 starting below the mean since 1995. Spring and Summer 2023 saw a series of warmings, continuing into 2024 peaking in April, then cooling off to a low in January 2026. Since then El Nino in the Tropics has risen sharply pulling up all regions despite a drop in July.
UAH has updated their TLT (temperatures in lower troposphere) dataset for August 2026. Due to one satellite drifting more than can be corrected, the dataset has been recalibrated and retitled as version 6.1 Graphs here contain this updated 6.1 data. Posts on their reading of ocean air temps this month are ahead the update from HadSST4 I posted recently on July 2026 El Nino Spikes SSTs Warming, These posts have a separate graph of land air temps because the comparisons and contrasts are interesting as we contemplate possible cooling in coming months and years.
Sometimes air temps over land diverge from ocean air changes. 2025 showed a sharp contrast between land and sea, first with ocean air temps falling in January recovering in February. Then in November and December SH land temps spiked while ocean temps showed litle change. In February 2026 NH land temps doubled, from Dec. 0.53C up to 1.14C last month. Despite SH land changing little, and Tropical land cooling, the Global land anomaly jumped up from 0.53 to 0.93C. That reversed in March with both NH land and Global land anomaly back down to 0.63C. That cooling offset SH Ocean warming doubling from 0.19C to 0.38C. In May was a warming spike in Tropics and SH ocean air while NH ocean air was flat. At the same time, Land air temps warmed in Tropics and NH while dropping in SH. The unusual end result for May was Global, Land and Ocean air temp anomalies all showing the same 0.53C. In June and July there were ups and down, and now in August an upward bump in NH and SH, both land and sea.
Note: UAH has shifted their baseline from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 beginning with January 2021. v6.1 data was recalibrated also starting with 2021. In the charts below, the trends and fluctuations remain the same but the anomaly values changed with the baseline reference shift.
Presently sea surface temperatures (SST) are the best available indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system. Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy. Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements. In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates. Eventually we will likely have reliable means of recording water temperatures at depth.
Recently, Dr. Ole Humlum reported from his research that air temperatures lag 2-3 months behind changes in SST. Thus cooling oceans portend cooling land air temperatures to follow. He also observed that changes in CO2 atmospheric concentrations lag behind SST by 11-12 months. This latter point is addressed in a previous post Who to Blame for Rising CO2?
After a change in priorities, updates are now exclusive to HadSST4. For comparison we can also look at lower troposphere temperatures (TLT) from UAHv6.1 which are now posted for August 2026. The temperature record is derived from microwave sounding units (MSU) on board satellites like the one pictured above. Recently there was a change in UAH processing of satellite drift corrections, including dropping one platform which can no longer be corrected. The graphs below are taken from the revised and current dataset.
The UAH dataset includes temperature results for air above the oceans, and thus should be most comparable to the SSTs. There is the additional feature that ocean air temps avoid Urban Heat Islands (UHI). The graph below shows monthly anomalies for ocean air temps since January 2015.
After sharp cooling everywhere in January 2023, there was a remarkable spiking of Tropical ocean temps from -0.5C up to + 1.2C in January 2024. The rise was matched by other regions in 2024, such that the Global anomaly peaked at 0.86C in April. Since then all regions have cooled down sharply to a low of 0.27C in January. During 2025 there were ups and downs, but in November/December all regions were cooler, led by a sharp drop in SH bringing the Global ocean anomaly down to 0.02C. In 2026, ocean warming was evident, with Tropics and SH pulling up Global ocean air temps despite little rise in NH ocean. Now in June and July that has reversed with SH cooling and pulling down the Global ocean anomaly, even despite tropical warming. Now in August all regions are up again, near summer of 2024 values, though Tropics rose only slightly.
Land Air Temperatures Tracking in Seesaw Pattern
We sometimes overlook that in climate temperature records, while the oceans are measured directly with SSTs, land temps are measured only indirectly. The land temperature records at surface stations sample air temps at 2 meters above ground. UAH gives tlt anomalies for air over land separately from ocean air temps. The graph updated for Augusr is below.
Here we have fresh evidence of the greater volatility of the Land temperatures, along with extraordinary departures by SH land. The seesaw pattern in Land temps is similar to ocean temps 2021-22, except that SH is the outlier, hitting bottom in January 2023. Then exceptionally SH goes from -0.6C up to 1.4C in September 2023 and 1.8C in August 2024, with a large drop in between. In November, SH and the Tropics pulled the Global Land anomaly further down despite a bump in NH land temps. February showed a sharp drop in NH land air temps from 1.07C down to 0.56C, pulling the Global land anomaly downward from 0.9C to 0.6C. Some ups and downs followed with returns close to February values in August. A remarkable spike in October was completely reversed in November/December, along with NH dropping sharply bringing the Global Land anomaly down to 0.52C, half of its peak value of 1.17C 09/2024.
In 2026 January and February Global land rebounded up to 1.14C, led by a NH warming spike. That NH spike was reversed in March and April back down to 0.43C. In June land temps in SH plunged nearly 0.6C down to 0.2C, pulling Global land anomaly down more than 0.1C. July and August saw Global land temps up again with warming in all regions.
The Bigger Picture UAH Global Since 1980
The chart shows monthly Global Land and Ocean anomalies starting 01/1980 to present. The average monthly anomaly is -0.02 for this period of more than four decades. The graph shows the 1998 El Nino after which the mean resumed, and again after the smaller 2010 event. The 2016 El Nino matched 1998 peak and in addition NH after effects lasted longer, followed by the NH warming 2019-20. An upward bump in 2021 was reversed with temps having returned close to the mean as of 2/2022. March and April brought warmer Global temps, later reversed
With the sharp drops in Nov., Dec. and January 2023 temps, there was no increase over 1980. Then in 2023 the buildup to the October/November peak exceeded the sharp April peak of the El Nino 1998 event. It also surpassed the February peak in 2016. In 2024 March and April took the Global anomaly to a new peak of 0.94C. The cool down started with May dropping to 0.9C, later months declined steadily dropping. to 0.3C in December. In 2026 the global anomaly was little changed through April, then rose to a new peak of 0.68C in August.
The graph reminds of another chart showing the abrupt ejection of humid air from Hunga Tonga eruption.
TLTs include mixing above the oceans and probably some influence from nearby more volatile land temps. Clearly NH and Global land temps have been dropping in a seesaw pattern, nearly 1C lower than the 2016 peak. Since the ocean has 1000 times the heat capacity as the atmosphere, that cooling is a significant driving force. TLT measures started the recent cooling later than SSTs from HadSST4, but are now showing the same pattern. Despite the three El Ninos, their warming had not persisted prior to 2023, and without them it would probably have cooled since 1995. Of course, the future has not yet been written.
This is the latest and greatest meme to scare the world of climate collapse, and it is gathering momentum and triggering followers. A sanity check is published at climatetippingpoints, despite they also being prone to CO2 Hysteria. The article is Fact-Check: have actuaries predicted that billions will die beyond 2 degrees? Excerpts below with my bolds and added images and comments.
Roger Hallam (the co-founder of climate activist groups like Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil) has widely promoted this, repeatedly stating for example that “the British insurance sector once did an analysis showing that at 3 degrees Celsius of global warming, 4 billion people could die — and at 2 degrees, 2 billion lives could be lost. But that’s not even the full truth — it’s the minimum.” Hallam has also notedthat the trial of some Just Stop Oil activists (which resulted in acquittal) included the court taking “4 billion deaths at 3°C” as an “agreed fact“.
Based on this analysis, Hallam has co-founded a new campaign called ‘4 Billion Dead‘ (4BD), explicitly referencing the 3°C-based number in its name, connecting it to an outlier estimate of 3°C by 2050 (itself based on a linear extrapolation of just the last few years’ warming), and using it as the basis for planning and promoting a new civil disobedience campaign:
So where did these numbers come from then, and are they reliable?
[However, details in the Risk impact matrix give the game away–see below]
Does this confirm then that the Planetary Solvency report is predicting there’ll be 2 billion dead at 2°C or more, and over 4 billion deaths at over 3°C? It may seem like it, but the answer is actuallyno – the numbers in this dashboard and supporting appendix are labelled as illustrative (as flagged above both instances, including on the latter that it is “not a prediction or central scenario“).
This means these are justhypothetical numbers to show how such a dashboard would work, and not empirical predictions or projections based on some underlying analysis. This has been confirmed by speaking to one of this Planetary Solvency report’s authors, who agreed that these numbers aren’t based on a specific scientific analysis (with no associated calculations on death numbers presented in the report’s supplementary material either, unlike for GDP), rather being meant as a hypothetical illustration of a worst-case scenario to measure risk against, to be followed later with more detailed empirical analyses. Critically, the worst-case scenario here is implicitly part of a spread of many potential outcomes at 3°C, rather than 3°C itself being the worst-case scenario with these numbers the expected outcome if it is reached.
This means that even taking this report as it stands (leaving questions around the robustness of the magnitude of these death and GDP numbers to other posts), these numbers cannot be treated as predictions by actuaries (which implies an empirically-grounded expectation of the most likely future resulting from 3°C), in contrast to how they’ve been referred to in the earlier quotes, social media posts, and campaigns. Instead, they can at most be interpreted as (and for clarity should be communicated as) provisional expert ‘guesstimates‘ of a potential worst-case scenario, which was used to test-run a climate risk analysis methodology,
The UK insurance industry has not predicted mass death then, and four billion dead at 3°C is not an agreed fact but a misunderstood hypothetical worst-case scenario awaiting study. Some of the example reactions above could be down to an honest but widespread misreading, given that media outlets at the time reported these numbers like they were empirical estimates and lacked subsequent pushback (e.g.The Guardianarticle in January 2025), and skim-reading the report itself one might miss the “illustrative” labels.
It might be argued by some promoters that presenting this scenario as a prediction made by a respected body anyway is useful for promoting appropriately urgent action, but such misrepresentation runs the risk of fuelling scepticism or fatalism too. [You Think?]
Update: NYT Rushes To Blame Climate Change For Nepal’s Glacier Collapse—It Wasn’t
Anthony Watts writes at Climate Dispatch:
The New York Times(NYT), in its article “Climate Change Raises Risk of Disasters Like Nepal Floods,” claims that climate change increased the risk of the catastrophic glacier collapse and flooding in Nepal by thawing permafrost and destabilizing the mountainside. [some emphasis, links added]
This is false. The best evidence suggests the disaster was primarily caused by a complex cascade of geological failures and vulnerabilities in human infrastructure, not proof of a “climate crisis.”
“Climate change is heating up the Himalayas and supercharging the risk of disasters like the deadly flash flooding in Nepal and Tibet,” says the NYT, which quotes one researcher saying, “‘There’s a very straight link between climate change and these types of disasters.’”
Yet just a few paragraphs later, the article quotes Newcastle University geomorphologist Stuart Dunning,
“I don’t think we can simply say this is a result of climate change.”
A top meteorologist says the evidence points to geological failure and vulnerable infrastructure, not a “climate crisis.”
That caution should have been the headline. Instead, it was buried.
Ironically, the NYT itself provides historical context that weakens its central narrative. The article acknowledges that glacier failures have occurred dozens of times in the China-Nepal border region since 1900.
Since these events occurred repeatedly for well over a century, long before human greenhouse gas emissions rose, this event cannot be automatically linked to modern greenhouse gas emissions and human-induced climate change.
The disaster in Nepal is likely not over. And as expected, the climate alarmists are already claiming humans and CO2 are implicated. Some examples from the usual suspects.
CBC: Scientists fear Nepal’s disaster is just a glimpse of the carnage climate change could cause Global warming contributes to conditions that make a glacier collapses, floods more likely, experts say
ABC Australia: Nepal flood exposes risks from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost. Scientists have warned for years that a warming climate is destabilising the Himalayas.
New York Times: Climate Change Raises Risk of Disasters Like Nepal Floods
The Guardian: Climate crisis could be destabilising mountain areas like Nepal
Forbes:Nepal Flash Flood: Experts Say Climate Change Primed Disaster
Scientific American: the Nepal disaster—and why climate change could make these events more likely
The answer is increasingly concerning but it is not as simple as saying that every flood is caused by climate change. The danger comes from a combination of changing climate conditions, unstable terrain, expanding glacial lakes, extreme rainfall, rapidly changing rivers and development in narrow mountain valleys.
Glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya are losing ice, while many high-altitude areas are experiencing changes in snow cover and frozen ground. These changes do not simply mean that there is “less ice.” They can also alter the stability of the entire mountain environment.
Flooding is not new to Nepal. Every monsoon, heavy rainfall causes rivers to swell, while landslides frequently block roads and damage settlements. But high-mountain floods can have another source. Water can suddenly be released from a glacier, a glacial lake or a temporary blockage in a mountain valley. A flood can also be triggered by a rock or ice avalanche entering a river. This is one reason Himalayan floods can be so difficult to predict.
The August 2026 disaster in the Nepal-China border region has highlighted precisely this problem. Preliminary scientific assessments indicate that an ice-rock avalanche entered the Lhende Khola system before producing a destructive downstream surge. Researchers have also emphasized that the exact chain of events is still being investigated.
Recent research has shown just how complicated the region can be. A 2026 study documented major outburst floods from supraglacial lakes along the China-Nepal Himalayan border in 2025, demonstrating that water can also accumulate and drain within or on top of debris-covered glaciers in ways that are difficult to observe from the ground.
Following the August 2026 disaster, scientists told Reuters that warming temperatures are contributing to instability in high mountain ice and rock, while emphasizing that the precise trigger of the event remains under investigation. That scientific caution is important. Climate change is a risk multiplier, not a single switch that turns every mountain hazard on.
The August 2026 disaster is a painful reminder of what can happen when a high-altitude event suddenly connects with a populated river valley. It also demonstrates why Himalayan hazards cannot be viewed separately. A glacier can influence a lake. A lake can interact with a landslide. A landslide can change a river. A river can destroy infrastructure many kilometres away. That chain is what makes the Himalayas so difficult—and increasingly important—to understand.
Blatten dominated discussions at an international landslide conference held last month in Lausanne, where over 60 experts gathered to understand how such an event unfolded — and how to anticipate the next one.
Six months on, certain patterns have emerged, say scientists. The three largest Alpine landslides of the past 20 years — Piz Cengalo (2017), Piz Scerscen (2024) and now Blatten (2025) — all involved rockfalls onto glaciers that transformed into massive rock-ice avalanches and debris flows.
Whether Blatten can be attributed to climate change remains a central, unresolved question. Some scientists argue the link is evident. University of Zurich scientist Christian Huggel believes climate change played a key role in Blatten. “Of course, the geology, especially the layering and composition of the rock, is the key factor in such an event,” he told a conference in Innsbruck, Austria, in September. But Huggel believes that without climate warming, the Blatten landslide would have happened centuries later, if at all.
Others are more cautious. A July factsheet from the federal technology institute ETH Zurich concluded it was “quite likely” that warming was a relevant factor, noting that the unstable rock zone lies within permafrost, which is sensitive to rising temperatures. Switzerland has warmed 2.9° degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times — about twice the global average — leading to widespread glacier loss, altered snowfall patterns and thawing permafrost.
Rockfalls are increasing as snowmelt and permafrost thaw worsen, but scientists say it’s still unclear whether larger rockslides are becoming more frequent, and it’s hard to make reliable statements about very big, rare events as data is uneven. “Processes are interlinked and difficult to disentangle,” says ETH Zurich glaciologist Daniel Farinotti, who hopes to present firmer conclusions about the Blatten disaster next year. “What can be said is that the local geology, climate, glacier and permafrost all played a role [in the Blatten disaster].”
The chart above from DMI shows why Arctic ice melted more slowly than average. This year the daily mean temperature never went above freezing, From now on it will only grow colder. August is significant because it is the last month that NH ice extent declines. Those familar with the datasets know that March monthly average is taken as the annual maximum ice extent, and September monthly average serves as the annual minimum. Importantly both months are neutral, i.e. the ice extent values are nearly the same at the month start and end. All the melting occurs April to August, all the freezing October to February.
[ It reminds me what a Saskatchewan grain farmer told me: “Around here we only have AAA farmers”. I asked what he meant and he replied: “April to August and then Arizona.”]
The arctic ice extents are now reported through August 31, 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex had hampered ice formation with incursions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle. This factor receded in May and June, with July extents closing the gap with the averages. August ends with ice extents well above the 20-year average. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) goes through the Russian shelf seas of Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas on the way to Bering Strait in Beaufort Sea.
The image from August 31 shows the Arctic Ocean core is still solid, while the Eurasian NSR now has open water on the left vertical side, including passages through Laptev (top left) and Chukchi (bottom Left). As usual in August, Hudson Bay (bottom right) is full open water, as is Baffin Bay (middle right). At this point Canadian Archipelago has opened up the eastern end of the NW passage, but still has extensive fast ice in Beaufort sea (bottom center). Canadian Ice Service latest conditions along the Alaskan coast include an ice warning for ships:
The chart below shows the 20-year August averages for Arctic ice extents, along with 2026, 2025 and 2007 as well as SII v.4. Note that on average during this period 1.9M km2 of ice extent is lost. In August, MASIE was above average the last 3 weeks, showing considerable surplus ice end of August. SII v.4 continues to greatly underestimate Arctic ice extent, ending this period ~0.5M km2 lower than MASIE, or half a Wadham in deficit.
The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 243 across regions of the Arctic ocean.
Region
2026243
Day 243 Ave
2026-Ave.
2007243
2026-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere
5320736
4960255
360481
4827899
492837
(1) Beaufort_Sea
734913
573741
161172
688338
46574
(2) Chukchi_Sea
424517
290417
134100
123559
300958
(3) East_Siberian_Sea
369883
370301
-417
311
369572
(4) Laptev_Sea
316828
174987
141840
273250
43578
(5) Kara_Sea
6471
46663
-40192
104111
-97641
(6) Barents_Sea
0
15154
-15154
9657
-9657
(7) Greenland_Sea
142412
164671
-22259
344052
-201641
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence
36105
29325
6780
37456
-1352
(9) Canadian_Archipelago
315921
297208
18713
263154
52766
(10) Hudson_Bay
16
20010
-19994
40797
-40781
(11) Central_Arctic
2972584
2976914
-4330
2941956
30628
The table shows an overall surplus of 360k km2 or 7%, and almost a half wadham greater than 2007. Many regions are close to or above the 20-year average. The seas of Laptev, Chukchi and Beaufort are in surplus. The only sizeable deficit is in Greenland Sea. Bering and Okhotsk seas are left off the list since they are open water now as usual.
Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.